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Good morning.
Week 2 of the NFL Preseason is upon us, which might be even worse than Week 1 because half the teams are playing their starters in joint practices and not the games.😒 I guess I’ll just stick to watching baseball… at least my Cubbies are giving me something to cheer about #MVPete!
As for today’s newsletter, we’re taking a look at regression candidates. While that term usually has a negative connotation, it simply means a return to the mean (average) and can be either positive or negative. In the context of fantasy football, that means we’re trying to spot players who either overperformed or underperformed last year based on their expectations and career baselines.
Let’s get after it…
Today's newsletter highlights:
Positive Regression Candidates 📈
Negative Regression Candidates 📉
Rookie Spotlight: Denzel Boston 🔦
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Positive Regression 📈
A Big Jump for Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty — Raiders.com
Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty
Jeanty owned the league’s highest share of backfield carries inside the 10-yard line (94.1%), but the Raiders scored an NFL-low 20.0% of their offensive TDs via rushing. Las Vegas became just the 12th team over the past decade to score at least 80% of its TDs through the air, per The Athletic’s Dalton Del Don. If that regresses to the mean, and if the team’s o-line improves (Jeanty was hit behind the line of scrimmage on nearly half of his runs, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath), then the RB could see a big jump in production.
