Good morning.

Hope Santa was good to you! But if you started Jahmyr Gibbs, I’m sorry to say you must be on the naughty list…

With 11 games still to go, there’s plenty of time to turn things around. That’s why we’re here with our FINAL newsletter of the season to give you the starts and sits you need to bring home the hardware.

STARTS & SITS 🧐

It’s the Championship, so first and foremost: START YOUR STUDS. You don’t want to lose knowing you benched a proven starter for this week’s most hyped up sleeper pick. But for all those “tweeners” on your roster, we found some insight that should help…

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em

Trevor Lawrence @ IND: He’s scored at least 23.1 fantasy points five games in a row, including Week 14 against Indy when he dropped 23.4. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 20th in EPA per dropback allowed, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak, and were just dismantled by Brock Purdy for 295 passing yards and five TDs.

Brock Purdy vs. CHI: Purdy has now thrown for 590 yards and eight TDs over the last two weeks, while rushing for 55 yards during that span. He should keep it rollin’ against a Bears defense that allows the 12th-most fantasy points to QBs, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

Caleb Williams @ SF: The 49ers have allowed seven of the past 11 QBs to score at least 21.1 fantasy points, including Philip Rivers last week, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Baker Mayfield @ MIA: The Dolphins are a top-5 run funnel by pass rate over expected allowed (-2.1%) and blitz at a top-3 rate (35.6%). That’s bad news for Mayfield, who has experienced -83% and -63% efficiency reductions to his adjusted net yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback when blitzed this year, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Bryce Young vs. SEA: He was a solid streaming candidate last week, but don’t trust him today against the Seahawks, who have allowed the 9th-fewest TD passes this season, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Jaxson Dart @ LV: This one’s tough — if he’s your only guy, you can start Dart in a soft matchup against the Raiders. But the rookie has just three designed carries and is averaging only 30 rushing yards per game in three games since Brian Daboll was fired, per Kyle Dvorchak. His ceiling just isn’t what it used to be.

😴 Sleepers

Jacoby Brissett @ CIN: The Bengals defense has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to QBs this season. They’ve surrendered 28 TD passes, tied for 3rd-most in the league, and give up the 4th-most passing yards per game (246.8), per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith. Seven opposing QBs have already posted top-12 finishes against them, so look for Brissett to do the same.

Tyler Shough @ TEN: He’s hit at least 17 fantasy points in four straight games and had a career-high 308 passing yards last weekend against the Jets. He’ll look to stay hot against the Titans, who have allowed the 7th most points to the QB position this season, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em

Ashton Jeanty vs. NYG: The Giants have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing RBs over the past five weeks (+8.1), as well as the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.88) of any team over the full season, per Ryan Heath. That’s huge for Jeanty, considering these splits:

Kenneth Gainwell AND Jaylen Warren @ CLE: Warren has found the end zone five times in his last five outings, while Gainwell has become a key piece in the passing attack with at least five receptions in five of his last six appearances. Meanwhile, the Browns’ run defense has crumbled — they’ve let seven straight starting RBs post at least 70 yards and a TD against them — with five of those backs clearing the 100-yard mark, per Justin Boone.

Michael Carter @ CIN: “He is the unquestioned lead back in Arizona headed into a Week 17 matchup with a Bengals team giving up a league-high 156 yards per game on the ground.” — Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport

❌ Sit ‘Em

Rico Dowdle vs. SEA: He’s been slumping since Chuba Hubbard’s return, and I wouldn’t expect it to get much better against a Seahawks D that’s allowed the 5th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs and hold opponents to a league-best 3.5 yards per carry, per Jody Smith.

Breece Hall vs. NE: He hasn’t hit nine fantasy points in any of the last three weeks, while averaging just 3.0 yards per carry since Week 12. On top of that, he’s recorded just four receptions for 23 yards through the air in the last three games played with QB Brady Cook, per Michelle Magdziuk.

All Saints RBs @ TEN: It was Taysom Hill who ended up leading the Saints in carries and rushing yards last week, while also throwing a TD pass and finishing 3rd in receiving yards. On top of that, the Titans have allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards and the fewest yards before contact to RBs since Week 12, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Rhamondre Stevenson @ NYJ: Even with TreVeyon Henderson clearing concussion protocol, you can still start Stevenson in a pinch this week. He’s still played more snaps than Henderson since Week 8 (63% to 56%) and will face a Jets defense that’s allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to RBs, per Jody Smith.

Blake Corum @ ATL: He’s scored at least 13 fantasy points in four straight games and will now take on a Falcons D that’s allowed the 9th-most fantasy points on average to the RB position since Week 5, per Michelle Magdziuk.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em

D.J. Moore @ SF: He’s topped 21 fantasy points in each of the last two games without Rome Odunze (foot), and should continue to produce in this potential shootout with the Niners. The game’s over/under (52.5) is the 2nd-highest of this week’s slate, behind only ARI @ CIN (53.5).

Jauan Jennings vs. CHI: “Jennings has found the end zone in six of the past seven games, and he's a top-15 fantasy receiver since Week 12. The 5th-year veteran should keep that hot streak going in a big game against the Bears, who have allowed the 10th-most PPR points to WRs this season.” — Gary Davenport

Jakobi Meyers @ IND: During the Jags’ six-game win streak, Meyers has averaged 13.9 fantasy PPG. He brings a very safe floor and has some clear upside. Plus, the Colts have struggled against receivers, allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards to the position this season, per Michael Florio.

❌ Sit ‘Em

All Bucs WRs @ MIA: One of them is bound to catch a TD and prove us wrong, but it’s best to fade this passing game considering Mayfield’s previously mentioned numbers vs. the blitz, and the fact that Miami has allowed the 8th-fewest PPR points to WRs, per Gary Davenport.

Khalil Shakir vs. PHI: Shakir has scored 9.6 PPR points or less in three of his past four games and has just one TD since Week 8. He also has five targets or less in four games in a row. Meanwhile, Philly has allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Marvin Harrison Jr. @ CIN: The matchup is tempting, but Maserati Marv has missed four of the last six games and managed just one catch on three targets last week. He’s been surpassed by Michael Wilson and is no better than the 3rd option in this passing attack.

😴 Sleepers

Adonai Mitchell vs. NE: “Even with Brady Cook on the sticks, Mitchell has earned 40% of the Jets’ air yards and 23% of the targets. Mitchell has a 29.5% 1st-read target share and has seen a 3rd of the team’s end zone looks.” — Kyle Dvorchak

Kyle Williams @ NYJ: The Patriots ruled out Kayshon Boutte (concussion) and placed Mack Hollins (abdomen) on IR on Saturday, while DeMario Douglas (hamstring) is questionable. That should open the door for Williams, who only has seven catches this season, but has made some big plays with 189 yards, three TDs, and three games of double-digit fantasy points in his last six contests, per DraftKings’ Zach Thompson.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em

Juwan Johnson @ TEN: With injuries in the receiving corps, Johnson catch eight of his nine targets for 89 yards last week. Now, he gets a Titans defense that’s been gashed by TEs lately, giving up 8-88-1 to George Kittle in Week 15, 8-114-1 to Harold Fannin Jr. in Week 14 and 3-45-1 to Brenton Strange in Week 13, per Justin Boone.

Colston Loveland @ SF: The rookie posted a season-best 82% route rate last week, but it didn’t amount to much production. That should change tonight, as the Niners defense ranks in the bottom-10 in receptions, yards and TDs allowed to TEs since losing Fred Warner, per USA Today’s Tom Viera.

Tyler Warren vs. JAX: The Jags have deployed the 4th-highest rate of zone coverage (79.0%), and Warren averages quadruple the yards per route run against zone coverage (2.16) as he does against man (0.54), per Ryan Heath.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Dallas Goedert @ BUF: He’s tough to sit given how productive he’s been lately, but Buffalo holds opposing TE to a league-low in receptions per game (2.8) and the fewest schedule adjusted fantasy PPG (-5.8). Just three TEs have finished among the top-12 weekly scorers vs. Buffalo all year, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Dalton Kincaid vs. PHI: “Not only is he a part-time receiver, this is the worst possible matchup. The Eagles allow a league-low 30.7 yards per game to TEs.” — Barfield

Brenton Strange @ IND: Since Week 10, Indy has held TEs to the 12th-fewest yards per target and the 8th-fewest fantasy PPG, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Hunter Henry @ NYJ: Three TEs in the past four games scored at least 15.2 PPR points against New York, per Jamey Eisenberg, and Henry should see a boost in targets given all the injuries New England’s WR corps.

Mike Gesicki vs. ARI: “He's the 3rd option behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the matchup with Arizona, which has allowed the 8th-most fantasy PPG to the position, is strong.” — Tom Viera

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 23-24-1

Chasing Points

🥇 Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD (-150)

• Arizona has lost seven consecutive games and rank last in scoring defense since Week 6 with 31.8 points allowed per game. More importantly, the Cards rank bottom-10 in passing defense with 224.1 yards allowed per contest, per CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani.

🥈 Chris Olave OVER 5.5 receptions (-105)

• “Olave is coming off a 10-catch performance and ranks 5th in the NFL in targets this season, making his reception volume one of the more reliable pieces of the New Orleans offense.” — FTN Fantasy’s Marshall Gershon

🥉 Eagles +1.5 @ Bills (-110)

• Buffalo ranks 31st in the league in yards per carry allowed (5.4) this season, and it has struggled when favored so far this season. Buffalo is just 5-8 against the spread as a favorite in 2025, and the Eagles have only played one game where they were close to an underdog, winning outright in a pick'em scenario against the Green Bay Packers, per SI’s Peter Dewey.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Week 17 Matchups That Matter from Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola for the most important matchup data to consider when making Week 17 start/sit decisions, including implied points, projected plays, WR/CB matchups, and adjusted fantasy points allowed.

📖 Read Everything fantasy football managers need to know for Week 17 from The Athletic’s Andy Behrens for injury updates, weather insights, rankings, matchups, and more.

📖 Read Predicting 2026's overall QB1, WR1, RB1 and TE1 from PFF’s Ryan Conway if you’re already looking ahead to next year. In this article, Conway flags players who could potentially upend fantasy seasons and make you reassess everything you think you know.

🎙️Listen to Starters to WIN Your Fantasy Championship! Start/Sit Advice Week 17 2025 from The Audible, where Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom preview this week’s games and offer fantasy insights to help you make critical lineup decisions.

📺 Watch the hilarious new IHOP fantasy football-themed commercial starring Malik Nabers:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

From the bottom of our hearts, we want to thank you so much for making us a part of your weekly routine. We genuinely appreciate all your feedback and support throughout the years to help us make the Morning Huddle the best fantasy football newsletter in the biz.👊

We’ll see you again in 2026 to get you ready to defend your title. Until then, have a Happy New Year and GO GET THAT W!🏆 We’re excited to hear how many Morning Huddlers finish as champs this year!

- Marcus