Good morning. Now is a good time to check in on that friend who drafted Cooper Kupp in the first round. Damn:

Per Edwin Porras’s The Guide, over 70% of players age 29+ reinjured their hamstring during the season. A setback this early in the offseason isn’t a good sign. Let someone else gamble on Kupp’s health. We gamble on everything else.

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RANKINGS

Jeff Wilson Jr. plummeted to RB60. Despite HC Mike McDaniel saying he could’ve played less than a week ago, Wilson was placed on IR with what was described as a “midsection injury compounded by some finger issues.” Wilson is out at least the first 4 weeks and could see his role diminished if rookie RB De’Von Achane thrives.

Correspondingly moved Raheem Mostert to RB32. He is locked in as the Week 1 starter. Last year’s RB25, Mostert averaged 16.7 PPG in games with 15+ rushing attempts. Achane stays at RB45 as he’s still nursing a shoulder injury.

George Pickens moves up to WR34 after a strong preseason from the entire Steelers offense. Kenny Pickett had a perfect passer rating and showed a strong connection with Pickens on deep passes (like this highlight-reel grab). This offense could surprise people.

WR Romeo Doubs drops to WR60. He’s nursing a hamstring injury and uncertain for Week 1. This gives rookie WR Jayden Reed a chance to leapfrog Doubs on the depth chart.

TE Darren Waller moves to TE4. Health is always a concern for Waller, but it is so rare to find a TE who is his team’s #1 receiving option. Waller had great chemistry with Daniel Jones this preseason and should see a ton of targets.

STORY

Impact of Coaching Changes

When Adam Gase was fired, we laughed. When Urban Meyer got canned, we cried. But when Kellen Moore joined the LA Chargers, we tried to ripoff our league mates for Justin Herbert. Was that the right decision? How much of an impact on fantasy production does a coaching change really have?

We’ve seen positive changes save careers (Sean McVay with Jared Goff) or ruin them (Adam Gase with Le’Veon Bell, Sam Darnold). What impact will Sean Payton have on Russell Wilson and the Broncos? Below, we examine the impact of the most significant coaching changes on fantasy performance.

Biggest Upgrades

Ravens OC Todd Monken should speed things up. The Ravens' offense averaged a -5.5% pass rate over expected under their former OC the past four seasons. Across his four seasons as an OC in the NFL, Monken's offenses averaged a +1.8% PROE. With Monken setting the pace and improved WR weapons, expect the biggest season of Lamar Jackson’s career.

Monken is reportedly trying to emphasize throwing to RBs more, great news for J.K. Dobbins. Monken's Cleveland RBs (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt) combined for 93 targets under Monken: Dobbins has seen just 32 targets in 23 career games. Dobbins said “you will see” when asked about him becoming more of a receiving threat in Todd Monken's new offense. 👀 

Broncos HC Sean Payton led the Saints to top-10 finishes in total yards and top-10 finishes in total points in 13/15 and 12/15 seasons, respectively (per DraftSharks). Payton brought in Joe Lombardi as OC. Lombardi spent the last two seasons as the Chargers OC and worked with Payton for 10 years in New Orleans.

Per The Athletic’s Brandon Howard: “Look for Payton and Lombardi to utilize a great deal of tight formations in conjunction with mesh concepts that create natural picks and rubs. If Russell Wilson has enough time or can create with his legs and generate explosive plays out of the scramble drill, it’s highly likely we’ll get to see Russ cook, as opposed to watching a cooked Russ in 2023.”

Chargers OC Kellen Moore helped the Cowboys to top-11 finishes in points and yards in every season where Dak Prescott was healthy. The Cowboys ranked top-4 in both pace and situation-neutral pace in each season Moore was OC (DraftSharks). The Cowboys' offense ranked ninth in explosive run rate in 2022, a stark contrast to the 29th-ranked Chargers. Expect to see a much faster paced, higher scoring Chargers team in 2023 - great news for anyone invested in this offense.

Notable Moves

New Buccaneers OC Dave Canales had an interview with Pewter Report where he shared his offensive philosophy. Biggest tenent: tempo. Canales comes from Seattle, where the 2022 Seahawks ranked second in no-huddle rate and tied for fifth in plays per minute, per NFELO.

“Of course, it's worth noting that Canales was praised for the work he did turning Geno Smith into a Pro Bowl-level passer who threw for 30 touchdowns with a top-five passer rating (100.9) last year. So, that body of work could bode well for Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask.” - Jacob Camenker of Sporting News

Washington’s OC Eric Bieniemy spent five years as Chiefs RBs coach, followed by five as OC, where he let Mahomes rip it downfield (but it’s Mahomes). “Exciting. … A lot of down-the-field plays," WR Jahan Dotson said of Bieniemy’s offense, via The Athletic. “We’re going to stretch the field, make the defense really work.” Dotson posted a 15.4-yard average depth of target as a rookie, besting veteran WR Terry McLaurin (who's already injured).

Read the following for more coaching changes:

• NFL Coaching Changes 2023: The Fantasy Impact by Kevin English of DraftSharks

• Offensive coordinator changes: The players who will benefit (and suffer) from new play callers by Brandon Howard of The Athletic

MARKETS

Must Draft Handcuffs

📈Jamaal Williams is leading the Saints backfield for the first few weeks. Rookie RB Kendre Miller suffered a hamstring injury (common after a knee injury/strain) and Alvin Kamara is suspended until Week 4. Williams is a potential top-15 RB the first three weeks of the season. Until the Saints sign Kareem Hunt…

📉 The Bears kept 3 TEs on their roster (Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, and Mercedes Lewis). Cole Kmet played 90% of the snaps in 14 of the 17 games last year, but Tonyan and Lewis will reduce Kmet’s every down role. That, plus the addition of WR DJ Moore in an already run-heavy offense? No thanks.

📈 TJ Hockenson reset the NFL’s TE market after signing a 4 year $68.5M contract extension, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. Justin Jefferson saw a league high 227 double teams last season per Tej Seth (39 more than 2nd place) allowing Hockenson to take advantage of numerous 1-on-1 matchups in a pass happy offense. Hock was TE2 in PPG last season.

📉 Chiefs GM Brett Veach gave rare usage insight into their crowded WR room by confirming Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross will start the season as “package players” with the hope they graduate to every down roles later in the season. With ascending players like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney and veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling ahead of Rice and Ross, it’s hard to invest fantasy draft picks in either player. Wait until your league mates drop them in Week 3 or 4.

📈 Trey McBride could have a bigger role than expected after fellow Cardinals TE Zach Ertz said he doesn’t think it’s certain he plays Week 1 “by any means.” 

Depth Charts

Rookie: Tyjae Spears

Who needs an ACL? Not this guy. Titans RB Tyjae Spears has quickly emerged as a top-tier handcuff this season. We all know Tennessee’s offense runs through Derrick Henry, yet Spears has serious potential to steal snaps.

Per Warren Sharp, Spears led the NFL with 4.73 yards after contact per carry among qualifying RBs this preseason. Spears also finished 9th in yards per carry (5.3) while tallying the 8th highest EPA (Expected Points Added) per rush (+0.09). And he did all this despite facing 8+ men in the box on a staggering 41% of his rushes, and 7+ box defenders on 82% of his rushes (both well above NFL average).

Should anything happen to Henry, Spears becomes a potential league winner. The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode has also suggested Spears could be the team’s 3rd down back this year and could even replace Henry as Tennessee’s RB1 in 2024 - keeper/dynasty players, THIS IS FOR YOUUU *LeBron Voice*

QUICK SLANTS

Gimme A Pierce

📖 Read Offseason Recap: 9 Fantasy Football Takeaways from the 2023 Preseason by Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz.

“Dameon Pierce might be this year’s version of Josh Jacobs… Only 2014 Marshawn Lynch forced a higher rate of missed tackles per touch than Pierce over the past 10 years… Low-scoring offenses have produced high-end fantasy RBs at a higher rate than any other position.”

📖 Read 2023 Training Camp News Tracker by Tom Brolley of Fantasy Points. Two snippets:

“Joe Burrow returned to practice on Aug. 30, one month after initially going down with his calf injury. The Bengals took their time with Burrow’s injury and he should be good to go for the season opener against the Browns.”

“HC Andy Reid said on Aug. 26 that Kadarius Toney (knee) could return to practice in “about a week” which gives him a chance to play in the NFL season opener against the Lions on Sept. 7.”

📖 Read “Our Guys” for fantasy football 2023 by The Athletic’s staff. One ‘Guy’:

“I wish that someone could explain to me why Brandon Aiyuk is being drafted multiple rounds after Deebo Samuel despite leading the 49ers in targets, receptions and receiving yards last year… However you want to say it, the reality is that Aiyuk is San Francisco’s WR1 now — but far too many drafters are stuck in 2021. — Gary Davenport”

🎙️Listen to the Bold Predictions episode of the Late Round Podcast. JJ Zachariason expands on some of his yearly bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy season.

“Both Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will finish as top-24 WRs. Johnson is being drafted as WR28 and Pickens as WR36. Historically WRs drafted together in the middle rounds exceed ADP expectation at a really strong rate. If the Steelers’ offense takes a step forward, both of them will benefit greatly.”

📺️ Watch the best Hard Knocks character of all time, or Cardinals QB Josh Dobbs giving everyone an inside look at what happens when you get traded in the NFL.

Tweet of the Day

What’s the opposite of Tony Robbins? The new Cardinals HC. And it got worse (video).

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