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Good morning.

The playoffs are here which means it’s time to sweat out every throw, every run, and every snap… unless of course you already started Kyle Pitts. Congrats on your 1st round bye.

Previously public enemy #2 (behind only Arthur Smith), Pitts had the best fantasy football game in half PPR scoring for a TE since at least the year 2000, per Yahoo’s Matt Harmon. That’s more than household names like Shannon Sharpe, Gronk, Antonio Gates, and even Blake Jarwin.🤯 

For those of us peasants who don’t have Pitts, let’s take a look at some of the top starts and sits from industry experts…

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em

Brock Purdy vs. TEN: The Titans allow the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone. In their last two games alone, Tennessee has let Shedeur Sanders and Trevor Lawrence finish as top-5 fantasy QBs, so Purdy offers similar upside this week.

Jaxson Dart vs. WAS: The Commies have allowed the 4th-most points to opposing QBs this season, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk. Since Week 7, Washington has allowed 20+ fantasy points to J.J. McCarthy, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott, and after today, you’ll be able to add Dart to that list, too.

Trevor Lawrence vs. NYJ: Since Week 9, Lawrence has been the QB9 in fantasy PPG, finishing as a QB1 in weekly scoring in four of his last six games. He should continue his hot streak against the Jets, who have allowed the 9th-highest success rate per dropback, the 9th-highest EPA per dropback, and the 12th-highest passer rating in the league since Week 10, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Justin Herbert @ KC: He’s been brutal over the last month, finishing as the QB16, QB31, QB20, and QB17. Meanwhile, KC allows the 7th-fewest passing fantasy PPG (12.3), per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Caleb Williams vs. CLE: “Kalib” has fewer than 15 fantasy points in three of his last four games and five of his past eight. This low floor is due to the fact that he ranks 33rd in completion % and 23rd in passer rating among qualified QBs. On top of that, he's facing the Browns, who have the 2nd-highest sack rate in the NFL and have allowed the 5th-fewest passing yards since Week 10, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Philip Rivers @ SEA: The 44-year-old will officially start for Indy, but he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups just yet. Not only is he fresh out of retirement, but the Seahawks have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, per CBS Sports.

😴 Sleepers

C.J. Stroud vs. ARI: The Cardinals have generated the NFL’s 4th-lowest pressure rate (33.3%), and Stroud averages 27.3 fantasy PPG in the two games he’s been pressured on fewer than 34% of his dropbacks. Even when raising that threshold to 40%, Stroud still averages 21.3 fantasy PPG in a four game sample, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. Arizona has only hit a 40% pressure rate in two of their 13 games, so bet on Stroud having the time to hit some downfield shots today.

Marcus Mariota @ NYG: The Giants allow the 2nd-most fantasy PPG and the 3rd-most rushing yards to opposing QBs, per Yahoo’s James Koh. Plus, five of the last eight QBs have scored 20+ points against New York, with all eight having scored at least 15 fantasy points.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em

Travis Etienne vs. NYJ: Since the Jags’ Week 8 bye, ETN has scored the 7th-most fantasy PPG among RBs. He’s also found the end zone at an impressive pace, with six TDs over his last five outings. You can expect him to add to that total against a Jets defense that’s given up 10 TDs to seven different RBs over just the last four weeks, per Justin Boone.

Quinshon Judkins @ CHI: Both teams are expected to lean on the ground game in this one, with an expected -20 degree windchill hitting Chicago. Plus, both Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson are OUT for this game, leaving Q as the lone dawg in Cleveland’s backfield. Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season — the 3rd-highest average among defenses — and own the 9th-worst PFF run-defense grade, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.

TreVeyon Henderson vs. BUF: The Bills’ run-funnel defense is allowing the 7th-most yards per carry and the 10th most explosive rush yards since Week 5, per Fantasy Points Data. They’re also allowing the 7th-most yards per carry against gap runs (which NE runs at a top-6 rate), and the 4th-most yards per carry against inside runs (which NE runs at a top-12 rate), per Dataroma.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Breece Hall @ JAX: He’s hard to bench, but temper expectations against the Jags, who have allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs this season. Early in the season, they did struggle against pass-catching backs, but they’ve allowed just 21 receiving yards per game to RBs over their last five, per Michael Florio. It’s hard to have confidence in Hall given this stiff matchup and 3rd-stringer Brady Cook starting at QB for the Jets.

David Montgomery @ LAR: Monty scored in each of his past two games, but he had 10 total touches or less in each outing. And prior to Week 13, he went three games in a row without a TD while averaging 7.2 PPR points. That TD-or-bust situation Montgomery finds himself in doesn’t bode well against the Rams, who have allowed the fewest rushing TDs to RBs this season (two), per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Bam Knight @ HOU: Trey Benson wasn’t activated and will now remain on IR for the rest of the season, leaving Knight as the leader of Arizona’s committee. While that helps his rest-of-season fantasy outlook, it would still be best to avoid him today. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Devin Neal vs. CAR: Alvin Kamara remains OUT, so Neal will lead the Saints’ backfield against a Carolina defense that has allowed the 6th-most PPR points to RBs since Week 7, with nine backs having finished with 14+ points against them this year, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Chris Rodriguez @ NYG: The G-Men are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to opposing RBs and rank 2nd-to-last in rush yards allowed, per James Koh. While C-Rod wouldn’t be considered a bellcow, he should have an efficient day thanks to New York’s 5.61 yards per carry allowed (worst in the league).

UPDATE: Despite logging back-to-back limited practice session, Rodriguez has been ruled OUT. Jacoby Croskey-Merritt is most likely to fill his role.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em

Terry McLaurin @ NYG: Since returning to the lineup two weeks ago, Scary Terry has racked up 10 catches, 137 yards and a TD on 20 targets. He should add to that total against a Giants defense that’s the 4th-easiest matchup for fantasy WRs, per Justin Boone.

Jauan Jennings vs. TEN: Jennings has yet to total 75 receiving yards in a game this season, but he has found the end zone in four of his past five games. Look for him to reach new heights this week against a Titans D that’s given up the 8th-most PPR points to WRs this season, per Gary Davenport.

Wan’Dale Robinson vs. WAS: Robinson has earned an elite 8.5 targets per game, while posting career-high marks in receptions (5.6) and receiving yards (63.7) per game, with a career-best 11.3 yards per reception. Plus, Washington leads the league in yards after the catch per reception allowed (6.4) since Week 8, giving up the 6th-most receiving yards (164.8) and 7th-most fantasy PPG (30.3) to WRs in that span, per Michelle Magdziuk.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Christian Watson @ DEN: He’s been a locked-in fantasy starter as of late, thanks to scoring five TDs in his last four games. However, he might struggle to keep up that pace against the Broncos, who have allowed just five TDs to WRs all year, per Jamey Eisenberg. There’s a chance he could also be shadowed by shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II, too, which wouldn’t help his cause whatsoever.

Michael Pittman Jr. @ SEA: He's been a target hog all season, but I’d rather take a wait-and-see approach on the Philip Rivers experiment with my season on the line.

Khalil Shakir @ NE: “The Bills have gone with a full-blown WR rotation over the last two weeks. Shakir’s route participation has been cut down to 52% and 53%, which crushes his projection in fantasy.” — Graham Barfield

😴 Sleepers

Chimere Dike @ SF: He’s been targeted +21% more often on a per-route basis when the Titans face Cover 4, which the 49ers deploy at the 4th-highest rate. They’ve allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game (92.2), the 4th-highest passer rating (122.5), and the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG (+5.7) to the slot this year, where Dike runs 71% of his routes, per Ryan Heath.

Jakobi Meyers vs. NYJ: He may be too good to be considered a “sleeper” by now, but since Week 11, Meyers has been the Jags’ unquestioned WR1 with a 24.5% target share, 60.8 receiving yards per game, 2.29 YPRR, and a 29.9% 1st-read share. In those four games, he has had six red zone targets and one deep target. He’s a strong WR2/3 again this week against the Jets, who have ranked 16th in PPR points per target against perimeter WRs since Week 10, per Derek Brown.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em

Harold Fannin Jr. @ CHI: In three starts with Shedeur Sanders, Fannin has 15 catches for 197 yards and two TDs on 22 targets, per Jamey Eisenberg. The rookie has now scored at least 11.3 PPR points in each of his past two games, and should continue to get peppered with targets now that fellow TE David Njoku (knee) has been ruled OUT.

Theo Johnson vs. WAS: He has surpassed 10 PPR points in three of his last five games and has a proven connection with Jaxson Dart. Look for him to reach double-digits again today against a Commanders D that’s given up the 5th-most PPR points to TEs this season, per Gary Davenport.

Dalton Kincaid @ NE: Kincaid is the most efficient TE in the league, averaging a position-best 2.9 YPRR on the season, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak. His 7.1 YAC per catch also ranks 3rd at the position, which offers him a high ceiling in what could be a shootout against the Patriots.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Colston Loveland vs. CLE: Loveland hasn’t seen a target share over 19% since Week 9, and has run a route on only 62% of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks over the past month, per Kyle Dvorchak. Given those numbers, and the weather in Chicago today, you’re better off looking elsewhere for a streamer.

Dallas Goedert vs. LV: Prior to last week, he scored fewer than five points in three consecutive games. Plus, the Raiders have allowed the fewest yards to TEs since Week 10 and the 3rd-fewest on the season, per Michael Florio.

Tyler Warren @ SEA: Like with Michael Pittman Jr., it’s just too hard to trust this Indy offense today. You may not have a better option at the position, so you could hold your breath and start him, but I’d rather not.

😴 Sleepers

Mark Andrews & Isaiah Likely @ CIN: You can throw either of these guys in your lineup today, as the Bengals allow the 3rd-most receiving yards per game on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (108.4), which bodes well for these TEs, as they’ve each averaged just a 7.7 aDOT. It’s also well known now that the Bengals are allowing the most fantasy PPG to TEs of any defense over the past decade, per Ryan Heath.

Mike Gesicki vs. BAL: Gesicki had six catches for 86 yards and a TD last week against a Bills defense that had been stingy against TEs all season. Look for him to stay hot with Tee Higgins (concussion) OUT this week, as he averaged five catches for 62 yards and 0.4 TD in five games where Higgins was sidelined last year, per FFMetrics’ Andrew Duh.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 20-21-1

🥇 Nico Collins OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-110)

• Nico has 75+ yards in five of his last six games since returning from injury. Plus, Arizona deploys Cover 3 (26.7%) and Cover 4 (26.1%) at a 52.8% clip, and Collins averages an elite 2.61 YPRR on 155 routes against those coverages. The Cards also allow the 14th-most receiving yards per game (106.7) and the 9th-most YPRR (2.04) to receivers aligned out wide, per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥈 Rams -5.5 vs. Lions (-115)

• LA is a juggernaut, ranking 1st in offensive DVOA and 3rd in defensive DVOA, per SI’s Iain MacMillan. Meanwhile, Detroit will be without one — possibly two — starting safeties, along with their No. 1 corner and a few other key defensive pieces. That's bad news for them when their job is to try to stop the MVP favorite, Matthew Stafford.

🥉 Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 INTs (+105)

• Mahomes has now been intercepted in five of his last six games, with eight of his 10 picks on the season coming in that span. Meanwhile, the Chargers have 15 INTs on the season and trail only the Bears (18) in that category. They’ve also thieved Mahomes six times in the last 10 regular-season meetings, per Yahoo’s Matt Jacob.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read 10 Most Intriguing Players of Week 15 from FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice for his controversial take on consolation brackets and some of fantasy football’s biggest storylines heading into today’s action.

📖 Read 2025 Week 15 DFS Main Slate Breakdown from Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett for the fantasy industry's most comprehensive dive into this week’s DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Barrett’s insight will help you craft the perfect lineup, while also offering tips to help your regular fantasy lineups, too.

🎙️Listen to The Ultimate Fantasy Football Playoffs Cheatsheet from Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life’s Talk Data to Me podcast, where he and Ian Hartitz offer positional breakdowns, streamers, and more insights to help you dominate your playoff run.

📺 Watch this wild ending to the Louisiana high school state championship game🤯:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Go get that W.✊ 

See you in the semis.

- Marcus