Good morning. What a weekend. Nothing beats ignoring life for 7 hours every Sunday. We missed it.
Reddit user u/aketchum339 reminds us that the fantasy season isn't decided after Week 1. Some "This time last year" facts: Ty'Son Williams was the RB9 & Austin Ekeler was the RB28. Your 0-1 start to the season is a fluke, don't sweat it.
And congrats to everyone who stashed top waiver wire pickups - Jaylen Warren & Jeff Wilson. It's now official - you're better than your friends. From deep dives last Thursday:
Today's newsletter outlines the top waiver wire pickups, with insights from the best analysts in the business.
MARKET
Losing Dak is a massive downgrade for CeeDee, while Amon-Ra St. Brown now has 8+ catches and 10+ targets in seven straight games.
We've now seen Christian Kirk make two appearances with Trevor Lawrence:
Week 2 Preseason: 32% target share on 8 targets
Week 1: 28.5% target share on 12 targets
We've made some massive adjustments to our ROS rankings - sharing the newsletter with three people gives you access.
WAIVERS
Watching the Wire
Jeff Wilson // Niner Noise
RUNNERS: Jeff Wilson Jr.
Per @AdamSchefter, Elijah Mitchell is expected to be sidelined for about two months with a sprained MCL. The depth chart behind Wilson is questionable and the 49ers love to run (they ran around 57% of their plays on Sunday, a game they lost). In the 8 games he's started in his career, Wilson averages 17.6 PPR PPG.
Jamaal Williams: Jamaal Williams saw only 4 less carries than Swift (15 to 11) & converted two TDs.
Darrell Henderson Jr: The Rams RB1, Henderson outpaced Akers in snaps (54 to 12) and carries (13 to 3), and was utilized in the passing game (5 grabs for 26 yards).
Jaylen Warren: The offensive line was awful, and Mitch Trubisky struggled to move the ball down the field, but I'm a sucker for good volume. Warren saw all the RB snaps once Najee left (But read Quick Slants).
Dontrell Hilliard: Turned four targets into three catches, 61 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Strong handcuff in potential James White role?
RECEIVER: Curtis Samuel
Samuel did his best Deebo Samuel impression, lead Washington with 11 targets (8-55-1) and 4 rushing attempts for 21.2 PPR points. Overlooked this offseason, Samuel is only owned in 8% of leagues and draws a plus Week 2 matchup against the Lions.
Taysom Hill is a QB, RB & WR with TE eligibility. Don’t be the guy complaining that Hill shouldn’t be a TE. Be the guy winning the league.
Kyle Phillips led the Titans with 6 catches and 66 yards after dominating Titans camp. Phillips had a 42.9% target rate in Week 1 (9 targets on 21 routes), almost never seen in a rookie WR. 2021 Hunter Renfroe?
Robbie Anderson led the Panthers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in Week 1 against the Browns, despite being as thin as paper.
Zay Jones earned 9 targets against the Commanders and looks like the WR2 on high-volume passing O.
Jahan Dotson: Elite usage in Week 1 (88% of snaps) and 2 TDs. Every down WR worth adding.
If he's available, Julio Jones is the WR1 add. Don’t buy the hype on Devin Duvernay.
PASSER: Marcus Mariota
Mariota ran the ball 12 times for 72 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against the Saints. Per @dwainmcfarland, he had a 22% designed rushing attempt share and 11% scramble rate. He had a decent fantasy day despite throwing 0 TDs.
The case for Carson Wentz: He put up 27.7 points in the opener & displayed chemistry with a strong WR group of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel. The Commanders have a dream matchup against the Lions next week. He's a great streaming option if you drafted Dak Prescott.
The case for Cooper Rush: Just kidding.
D/ST
Defense Wins Championships
When key offensive players are out, especially o-linemen and QBs, suddenly there are more D/ST sleepers. This week shapes up to have no shortage of viable options.
Cincinnati Bengals @ DAL - Dak is out and the Cowboys offense forgot the regular season started.
San Francisco 49ers vs. SEA - Great D-Line playing against a weak offense.
Denver Broncos vs. HOU - Houston looked decent Week 1 but the Broncos opened as 10.5 favorites
Green Bay Packers vs. CHI - Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears. And their defense should dominate a weak Bears O.
Buffalo Bills vs. TEN - The Titans were slow out of the gate and the Bills are in mid-season form.
Los Angeles Rams vs. ATL - Expect a bounce back performance from the Rams.
Cleveland Browns vs. NYJ - Joe Flacco is the Jets QB.
KICKERS: Ban them.
Brian Daboll: Legend.
QUICK SLANTS
Saquon Barkley is back. He hit 21.1 MPH on a run - the second fastest of any player in the NFL Week 1 and the fastest he's hit since 2019. (video)
Three RBs saw at least 90% of their team's RB rushes this week: Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry.
The next player on that list (84.6% share) is Cordarrelle Patterson per @LateRoundQB. Cordarrelle doesn't care about your aging RB regression models.
Dak Prescott had surgery on his fractured right (throwing) thumb on Monday and will be out 6-8 weeks.
The Score's Jordan Schultz reports there's a "good chance" Najee Harris will play in Week 2.
Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones said the team is "evaluating all options" at quarterback following Dak Prescott's hand injury.
Remember: Jon Gruden got a $100 million contract for 10 years. You can do anything you set your mind to. Get after it today.
Jake, Eddie, Matt & Coach Wehler.
Tweets of the Day
Christian really drops that joke in.
