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Good morning.

And congratulations to those of you with Puka Nacua on your team.

While you can get your last-minute Christmas shopping done today, the rest of us have some work to do. So let’s dive into the starts, sits, and sleepers that’ll get you to the big game.🏆️ 

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em

Jared Goff vs. PIT: “Coming off a 338-yard, three-TD performance against the Rams, Goff now heads home to face the Steelers defense that’s allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to QBs. This game is expected to be the highest scoring on the slate at 52 projected points.” — Yahoo’s Justin Boone

Brock Purdy @ IND: The Colts have allowed 286 passing yards per game over their last four, per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith, and will struggle to sustain drives with Philip Rivers under center. Purdy, meanwhile, is coming off a season-best 295 passing yards with 3 TDs and has now accounted for multiple TDs in five of his six starts.

C.J. Stroud vs. LV: “Over the last eight games, Stroud has finished inside the top-15 five times, and now he gets one of the better matchups in the league against the Las Vegas Raiders defense. The Raiders rank 22nd in pass DVOA and have looked absolutely out of place in the NFL as of late.” — FTN Fantasy’s Tyler Orginski

❌ Sit ‘Em

Dak Prescott vs. LAC: “Prescott has been a top-5 fantasy QB this season, but he's coming off his 3rd-worst fantasy outing of the season and draws a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has given up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to QBs this season.” — Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport

Jaxson Dart vs. MIN: Minnesota has allowed the 5th-fewest passing yards and 3rd-fewest passing TDs this season. They’ve been even tougher lately, too, yielding the 4th-fewest yards and just one TD pass since Week 10, while allowing the 3rd-lowest passer rating and completion % in that span, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Trevor Lawrence @ DEN: He’s reached a new level since his Week 8 bye. However, in that span, he's scored 15 points or fewer in two games. Those came against the Texans and Chargers, by far the toughest matchups he's faced during this stretch. This week, he draws Denver, which has allowed the 3rd-fewest TDs and 7th-fewest fantasy PPG to QBs, per Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Bryce Young vs. TB: Since Week 8, no team has given up more passing yards per game than the Buccaneers, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry.

Tyler Shough vs. NYJ: He’s been fantasy relevant over the past couple of weeks, largely due to his legs — 15 carries for 87 yards and two TDs over his past two games. Now he’ll take on a Jets defense that has allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to QBs, per Gary Davenport.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em

Bucky Irving @ CAR: Since Week 8, Carolina ranks bottom-5 in rushing yards per game and yards per carry allowed to RBs. Meanwhile, Bucky Irving has had at least 17 touches in every game he’s played this season, and seven of the nine RBs who have seen at least 15 touches against the Panthers this year have scored at least 16 fantasy points, per Matthew Berry.

Woody Marks vs. LV: “The Raiders‘ defense has not been able to stop opposing RBs over the last month, allowing R.J. Harvey (22), Kimani Vidal (20.7), Saquon Barkley (17.2), Quinshon Judkins (16.7) and Dylan Sampson (16.2) to each hit at least 16 points against them over the last four weeks.” — PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk

Michael Carter vs. ATL: He has a decent matchup against a Falcons defense that’s allowing the 15th-most fantasy points to the RB position and rank 24th in run DVOA, per Tyler Orginski. But the best part of all is he’s the unquestioned workhorse in Arizona, out-carrying Emari Demercado 14-to-1 last week.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Quinshon Judkins vs. BUF: This looks like a good matchup on paper, given Buffalo’s struggles against the run, but as a Browns fan I can tell you: don’t fall for it. Judkins has averaged under 2.0 yards per carry in each of his last two games against the weak run defenses of Tennessee and Chicago. The main reason for this has been Cleveland’s banged up o-line — center Ethan Pocic is out for the season, tackle Jack Conklin has a concussion, and guards Wyatt Teller and Zak Zinter are questionable.

Jaylen Warren @ DET: “Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point underdog against a defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to RBs. A pass-leaning game script would favor Kenneth Gainwell, whose 21% target share since Week 11 ranks 2nd on the team and ties Ashton Jeanty for 2nd among all RBs.” — Jody Smith

Ashton Jeanty @ HOU: He’s had three straight single-digit fantasy outings and is averaging just 1.3 yards before contact per attempt. That's not going to get better against a Texans defense giving up less than 93 yards per game on the ground, per Gary Davenport.

😴 Sleepers

Kenneth Gainwell @ DET: Since Week 11, Gainwell is the 8th-best RB in fantasy football. He’s averaging 18 fantasy PPG and has scored at least 16 points in four of five games in that stretch. Look for him to produce through the passing game in this potential shootout (52.5 O/U), as his 16% target share this season ranks 5th among all RBs, per Matthew Berry.

Aaron Jones @ NYG: He hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 11, but he'll have a great opportunity to get there this week, as the Giants have surrendered the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, per Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em

DK Metcalf @ DET: He’s put together back-to-back strong fantasy performances with seven catches for 148 yards in Week 14 and 55 yards and a TD in Week 15. Look for him to stay hot in a potential shotoout against the Lions, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Justin Boone.

Jauan Jennings @ IND: He’s scored six TDs in his last six outings and is coming off a WR11 finish. Now he gets a Colts defense that’s allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs, including a top-12 weekly finisher at the position in four of the previous five games, per Boone.

Michael Wilson vs. ATL: No defense has allowed more fantasy PPG to the WR position than the Atlanta Falcons since Week 8. In that span, 10 different WRs have put up 16+ fantasy points against them, including Tetairoa McMillan, JSN, Adonai Mitchell, Jaylen Waddle and DeMario Douglas, who all hit at least 20 points against them, per Michelle Magdziuk.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Emeka Egbuka @ CAR: He’s been held under 50 yards in four of his last five games and has not scored since Week 10. Meanwhile, Carolina allows the 10th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs, per Jody Smith.

Brian Thomas Jr. @ DEN: He’s tallied double-digit fantasy points in consecutive games for the first time since Week 6, but the Broncos might have the best defense in the entire league right now. They’ve surrendered the 7th-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Kristopher Knox, and should put the clamps on BTJ today.

Wan’Dale Robinson vs. MIN: The Vikings have allowed the fewest fantasy PPG to receivers this season, and the last time a wideout scored a TD against them was all the way back in Week 9, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Adonai Mitchell @ NO: The Saints deploy Cover 3 at a top-3 rate (40.9%), and Mitchell averages +32% more yards per route run against such coverage this year. Plus, his career 2.93 YPRR average against this shell ranks 11th-best among all WRs over the past two seasons. The Saints also rank top-4 in single-high usage (58.9%), and Mitchell’s 0.31 targets per route run against single-high ranks 5th-best among all WRs, behind only Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, and A.J. Brown, per Ryan Heath.

Ladd McConkey @ DAL: He’s been a major disappointment this year, but you can throw him in the FLEX against a Cowboys secondary that’s allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing WRs over the full season (+9.6) and the 2nd-most to the slot over the past five weeks (+4.6), per Heath.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em

Travis Kelce @ TEN: The Titans have allowed the 7th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing TEs over the past five games (+4.6), the 5th-most yards per target over expectation to slot and inline receivers over the full year (+1.1), and the most fantasy PPG to opposing WR1s (19.7), per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. With Rashee Rice out this week, all of those positions will apply to Travis Kelce. Minshew’s no Mahomes, but he’s good enough to get his top target the ball.

Harold Fannin Jr. vs. BUF: David Njoku has been ruled out once again. The veteran TE has missed two games this year and left a third after just six snaps. In those contests, Fannin had target shares of 27, 29, and 47%, while averaging 15 PPR points, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Dalton Schultz vs. LV: Since Week 7, Schultz has been the TE9 in fantasy PPG with six TE1 weekly finishes. Meanwhile, the Raiders have ranked 19th in yards per target and 17th in fantasy PPG allowed to TEs since Week 11, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Jake Ferguson vs. LAC: He’s averaging just 7.1 fantasy PPG with a dismal 14% target share since CeeDee Lamb returned to the lineup in Week 7, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Brock Bowers @ HOU: Trey McBride was the first TE to have 50+ receiving yards and a TD against Houston in a game this season when he did so last week, per Michelle Magdziuk. While Bowers is every bit as talented as McBride, his offense is unfortunately light years behind Arizona’s.

Mark Andrews vs. NE: Andrews has only four TE1 weekly finishes this season and has surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game only once this season. And since Week 9, New England has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the 7th-fewest yards per target to TEs, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Brenton Strange @ DEN: The Broncos have quietly allowed the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to TEs over the last five weeks. Denver also plays a ton of man coverage (38% — 4th-most), which bodes well for Strange, as he ranks TE6 in yards per route run (2.07) vs. man, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Darren Waller vs. CIN: This is your obligatory “start whatever TE is playing the Bengals” nomination, as Cincinnati is allowing the most receptions (7.1) and yards (91.1) per game to TEs this season, per Barfield.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 23-21-1

🥇 Jacoby Brissett OVER 242.5 passing yards (-111)

• We didn’t mention him as a start because it should go without saying that he should be locked into your lineup by now. Especially this week, as Atlanta has allowed 243+ passing yards in six of their last seven games, while Arizona leads the league in pass rate over expectation (8.3%), per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥈 De’Von Achane OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-115)

• The Bengals are allowing the 3rd-most receiving yards per game to RBs (45.6), while Achane has at least 39 receiving yards in four of his last six games and is averaging 32.1 receiving yards per game this season overall, per FantasyPros’ Dan Servodidio. Look for Quinn Ewers to check it down often in his 1st career start.

🥉 49ers @ Colts UNDER 46.5 total points (-118)

• With Ol’ Man Rivers returning from retirement last week, Indy ran the ball on 19 of their 23 first-and-10s. Rivers averaged just 4.7 air yards per attempt and only 2.5 seconds in time to throw, and the Colts' longest pass was 17 yards, per ESPN’s Ben Solak.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read The Primer: Week 16 Edition from FantasyPros’ Derek Brown, where he dives into every single matchup, offering rankings, starts/sits, and more insights to help you reach the finals.

📖 Read The No-Fly List: The Gut Check No. 671 from Footballguys’ Matt Waldman ($), where he shares his list of players heading into 2026 that he doesn't want on his re-draft or dynasty squads.

🎙️Listen to Late Round Perspectives: Sigmund Bloom Returns from J.J. Zachariason, where the two fantasy football living legends chat about their biggest surprise of the fantasy season, the 2025 rookie class as a whole, what they’ve learned this year, and much more.

📺 Watch Playoff Lockdown: Week 16 Must‑Starts from ESPN’s Fantasy Focus, where the guys recap TNF, preview this week’s matchups, and share their starts of the week:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Go get that W.✊ 

See you in the championship.

- Marcus