Good morning.

The first Sunday of the 2026 NFL season is HERE.

Boy, it’s great to be back. But before you kick your feet up, open up a bag of chips and get ready to be embraced by Scott Hanson, we have some starts and sits from some of the top experts in the fantasy football industry.

Let’s get after it…

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Jared Goff vs. NO: Detroit enters this game with a fully healthy pass-catching group and the league’s highest projected team total (28.5 points). Also, Goff has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt, 280 passing yards and 2.3 TD passes over the last two seasons at home, per The Deep Shot’s Dalton Del Don.

Baker Mayfield @ CIN: Cincinnati's defense should be improved this season, but it’s still worth noting they allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs last year, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg. Plus, this game has the highest projected score of the week at 50.5 total points.

Jaxson Dart vs. DAL: “Dart was a top-8 QB in fantasy PPG after stepping into the starting lineup last season and draws a Cowboys defense responsible for surrendering the most fantasy points to QBs last year.” — NFL.com’s Matt Okada

C.J. Stroud vs. BUF: Stroud was the worst QB in the NFL last year in terms of expected fantasy PPG (14th) vs. actual fantasy PPG (23rd), per Fantasy Points’ Joe Dolan.

Jordan Love @ MIN: Love has finished outside the top-20 fantasy QBs in each of his past two encounters with Brian Flores' defense, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

Patrick Mahomes vs. DEN: The Chiefs carry the 9th-lowest team total for Week 1 at 21.25 points in Matthew Freedman of Fantasy Life's model, facing one of the league's most dominant defenses. In 2025, offenses averaged 25.6 fewer yards and 0.4 fewer TDs against the Broncos, per Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland.

Tyler Shough @ DET: In his last four outings, Shough threw for 288 yards per game with five passing TDs, one rushing score, and zero turnovers, per RotoBaller’s Brandon Murchison. That dual-threat floor—plus the Saints’ expected pass-heavy approach under Kellen Moore—gives him a realistic path to 20+ fantasy points in this potential shootout.

Malik Willis @ LV: In his only start last season (against the Ravens), Willis threw for 288 yards, a TD, and ran for 60 yards and two scores. While his supporting cast in Miami is much worse than the weapons he had in Green Bay, Willis’ rushing ability alone makes him a solid QB2 this week.

Bucky Irving @ CIN: New Bucs’ OC Zac Robinson calls more zone-based runs than any other playcaller, and Cincinnati’s defense gets gashed by zone runs, allowing 4.97 yards per carry on them last year, per The Fantasy Footballers’ Mike Wright.

Tony Pollard vs. NYJ: “In 2025, the Jets surrendered the 2nd-most fantasy points, 2nd-most rush yards after contact and 5th-most explosive runs to RBs. Over their final eight games of the season, they surrendered 16+ fantasy points to nine different RBs. All of this is great news for Pollard, who had a strong finish to 2025—averaging 19.6 touches and 107 scrimmage yards per game over the final five weeks—and posted the same number of explosive runs on the season (27) as Jahmyr Gibbs and Christian McCaffrey.” — Matt Okada

Rico Dowdle vs. ATL: Atlanta ranked 23rd in yards after contact per attempt allowed and 26th in EPA per rush attempt allowed last year, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak. Dowdle, meanwhile, was 14th in yards after contact per carry in 2025 and should see plenty of opportunities in what should be a positive game script for Pittsburgh.

Jeremiyah Love @ LAC: The Chargers allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs last year, and only seven backs scored double digits in PPR against them, including none in the final four weeks of the season, per Jamey Eisenberg. It doesn’t help that Love is also coming off a high ankle sprain, making it likely he’ll split with Tyler Allgeier.

Quinshon Judkins @ JAX: Jacksonville has one of the toughest defensive fronts in the league and were the 3rd-stingiest opponent for fantasy RBs in 2025, per Justin Boone. In a game where the Browns are 8-point underdogs on the road, the degree of difficulty is just too high for Judkins to be trusted as anything more than a risky RB3/FLEX.

Jonathon Brooks vs. CHI: It looks like he’ll be good to go, despite battling a groin injury. However, most experts agree to go with a wait-and-see approach with Brooks, who still hasn’t proven anything at the NFL level. Let’s make sure he’s fully healthy and shows he can command a decent share of the workload before putting him in our lineups.

Kenneth Gainwell @ CIN: Even if Bucky Irving dominates on the ground, Kenny G could still eat through the air. Last year, Cincy allowed the 6th-most yards per target, the 2nd-most YAC per reception, and the 3rd-most yards per route run to backs, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

Dylan Sampson @ JAX: Sampson has clear upside in the passing game—in 15 games last season, he had 40 targets and 33 receptions, per USA Today’s Tom Vecchio, which is solid for a RB in a split backfield. The Browns are 8.5-point underdogs in this game, which should push them into a heavier passing game script and give Sampson a path to production.

Luther Burden III @ CAR: Under DC Ejiro Evero, the Panthers have deployed Cover-3 at the NFL’s highest rate over the last three seasons (43.8%). And since 2023, Bears HC Ben Johnson has been perhaps the most prolific Cover 3-beating playcaller in the league, leading all playcallers in passing YPG against the shell over that span (107.6), while his offenses rank 6th against it in fantasy points per dropback. More specifically, Luther Burden averages a team-high 3.60 YPRR against Cover-3 (a +91.5% increase compared to all other shells). Only Puka Nacua averaged more YPRR vs. Cover 3 than Burden across the full season (3.76), per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Jameson Williams vs. NO: The Saints deployed Cover-3 at the league's 2nd-highest rate last year (43.0%), while Jamo saw a +27.4% targets per route run boost against that shell, per Heath. You simply want pieces of the Lions’ offense today.

Chris Godwin @ CIN: Last year, Cincy utilized single-high coverage at the 6th-highest rate (56.7%). In Weeks 13-18, Godwin had 1.71 yards per route run and a 21.3% 1st-read share against single-high. Cincy was also horrible at defending the slot, giving up the 5th-most yards per target and fantasy points per opportunity to the position, per Derek Brown.

Courtland Sutton @ KC: The Chiefs ranked 7th-harshest on WR scoring last year by Draft Sharks’ adjusted fantasy points allowed. Sutton managed just 8 catches among 18 targets across their two meetings, while Bo Nix totaled 1 TD pass between them, per Draft Sharks’ Ian Miller. Plus, this game has the 5th-lowest point projection for the week, limiting the expected upside across all positions.

Carnell Tate vs. NYJ: “Titans-Jets has the lowest total on the slate at 39.5, and I think there are other options Cam Ward needs to get to before a deep threat like Tate.” — FTN Fantasy’s Tyler Orginski

Matthew Golden @ MIN: The Vikings surrendered the fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs in 2025, per Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox. Make Golden prove he can play before trusting him in your lineup.

Quentin Johnston vs. ARI: The Cards ranked among the bottom-10 in passing attempts, yards, and TDs given up last season. That’s an exciting matchup for Johnston, who led Chargers WRs in scoring last season while ranking 26th at the position in PPR fantasy PPG, per Ian Miller.

AD Mitchell @ TEN: The Titans were 32nd in yards per attempt (8.21) and 28th in EPA per dropback in 2025. They were specifically poor defending perimeter targets (where Mitchell will run most of his routes), finishing 29th in yards per game allowed to wide alignments and 31st in EPA per dropback, per Dataroma.

Juwan Johnson @ DET: Johnson averaged 11.7 PPR points in games Tyler Shough started. That also roughly lines up with his post-Rashid Shaheed split, when he averaged 11.6 points per game, per Kyle Dvorchak. You can comfortably start J.J. in what should be a shootout against the Lions.

Isaiah Likely vs. DAL: The Dallas secondary has been overhauled this offseason, but it’s worth noting that in Weeks 12-18 last year, this defense allowed the 4th-most yards per target and the 5th-most fantasy points per opportunity to TEs, per the staff at FantasyPros.

Kyle Pitts @ PIT: The Steelers allowed a ton of points to opposing TEs last year, ranking 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position, per Mike Wright. It might not be pretty for Pitts this week, but he should get plenty of looks.

Dalton Schultz vs. BUF: The Bills held him to just 1.8 fantasy points last year, and were the #1 fantasy defense against TEs, per Joe Dolan.

Dalton Kincaid @ HOU: Tough game all-around if your name’s Dalton… The Texans ranked 10th in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs last season and held all but six TEs under double-digit PPR scoring, per Brandon Murchison.

Jake Ferguson @ NYG: The Giants were actually pretty solid at limiting opposing TEs last season—their 2025 unit surrendered the 9th-fewest fantasy points to the position, per Kristopher Knox.

Michael Mayer vs. MIA: Brock Bowers it out for Week 1, so Mayer’s a good bet to see a high target share against a Dolphins defense that allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs last season, per RotoBaller’s Adam Koffler.

Brenton Strange vs. CLE: His 15.4% red zone target share was tied for the 3rd-highest on the team, along with a 12.5% receiving TD market share, per Tom Vecchio. Look for Strange to see some red zone looks today against the lowly Browns.

2025 Record: 26-24-1

🥇 Cowboys (-2.5) @ Giants

🥈 Steelers (-6.0) vs. Falcons

🥉 Saints (+7.0) @ Lions

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

📖 Read Mike Clay of ESPN’s Fantasy Playbook: NFL Week 1 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores, where he goes over score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS.

📖 Read NFL Week 1 Bold Predictions from the Around the NFL staff, where they offer up hot takes for today’s games, like Justin Jefferson torching the Packers and the Texans shutting out the Bills.

📖 Read Chris Johnson’s letter to his kids from The Players’ Tribune. In case you haven’t heard, CJ2K has been diagnosed with ALS. This letter he writes to his children is pretty powerful and tear-jerking—really puts things into perspective. Sending our best to Johnson and his entire family.🙏

📺 Watch how the Seahawks game-clinching interception played out behind the scenes from SNF on NBC’s production crew:

Good luck this week.

And remember: if a performance confirms your priors, you’re a genius. If it doesn’t, it’s just Week 1.

See you Tuesday.

- Marcus