Guten tag. 🇩🇪

Yes, football in Berlin! The American kind! Indiana Jones will be there, as his Colts face Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons at 9:30am ET.

Hopefully it’s better than that TNF game we suffered through… After watching that 10-7 punt fest, we better get treated to some fireworks today.

CHEAT CODE 🧩 

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em

Matthew Stafford @ SF: In his last five games, Stafford has thrown 16 TDs and is averaging 23.3 fantasy PPG (topping 25 points in four of those five). Meanwhile, San Fran has allowed the 7th-most passing yards, while generating pressure at the lowest rate in football, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio. Four of the last five QBs to face the Niners have cleared 19 fantasy points, including Stafford, who threw for 389 yards and three TDs against them back in Week 5.

Jaxson Dart @ CHI: Only Lamar Jackson (23.8), Josh Allen (23.2) and Patrick Mahomes (22.9) have averaged more fantasy points than Dart (22.4). Meanwhile, Chicago has allowed the 7th-most fantasy PPG to QBs, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk, and 40-year-old Joe Flacco put up four TDs and 30.7 fantasy points against them.

Caleb Williams vs. NYG: The Giants defense is allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing QBs over the past five weeks (+5.0). They’ve also deployed man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (40.6%), and Williams is averaging a +44% higher adjusted net yards per attempt against man than against zone this season. He ranks 6th-best among 31 qualifying passers against man (9.16) compared to just 16th against zone, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Jordan Love vs. PHI: He has finished outside the weekly top 15 at QB in three of his last four starts and faces another tough test this week. The Eagles rank 9th-toughest in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and have allowed the 2nd-fewest TD passes (8) through nine games, per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith.

Justin Fields vs. CLE: The Browns have only allowed three QBs this season to score more than 16.6 fantasy points, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg. You can take a shot on him as a QB2 in Superflex leagues, but don’t count on him as your QB1 in standard leagues this week.

Trevor Lawrence @ HOU: Houston has allowed the fewest fantasy PPG, the 4th-fewest passing yards per game, and the 6th-fewest passing TDs per game to opposing QBs. This defense has also yet to allow a top-12 fantasy QB finish this year, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze.

😴 Sleepers

Davis Mills vs. JAX: Jacksonville’s already struggling secondary has now lost starters S Eric Murray (neck) and CB Jourdan Lewis (shoulder). They’ve surrendered the 3rd-most passing yards (273.0) and 2nd-most QB fantasy PPG (23.5) since Week 4, per Fantasy Life’s John Laghezza, and it doesn’t look like they’ll get much better any time soon. Let’s see if Mills can take advantage.

Marcus Mariota vs. DET: “He’s posted three top-20 finishes in four starts this year, and while Detroit’s defense has been solid overall, they’re allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to QBs.” — FTN Fantasy’s Tyler Orginski

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em

Quinshon Judkins @ NYJ: He’ll face a gutted Jets defense that just traded CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams. Williams—PFF’s top-graded interior run defender—leaves a massive hole in a unit already allowing 135.8 rushing yards per game (7th-most). And even before the trades, the Jets ranked 12th-worst in fantasy points allowed to RBs, per Jody Smith.

David Montgomery @ WAS: Only the Bengals’ laughable D ranks lower than the Commies in yards allowed per game (410.0), success rate (48.3%) and EPA/play (-0.20) this month, per John Laghezza. Look for Monty and the Lions to run it all over Washington as they close out a win.

Rico Dowdle vs. NO: This should go without saying now—Uncle Rico is an RB1. In his three starts this season, Dowdle has put up scrimmage yard totals of 234, 239 and 141. He also found the end zone at least once in all of those games, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Tyrone Tracy Jr. @ CHI: Devin Singletary out-carried him 8-5 and out-snapped him 31-25 last week. On a per-carry basis, Singletary is averaging more yards, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact than Tracy this year, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Travis Etienne Jr. @ HOU: The Texans have allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs this season, while being better than league average in yards before and after contact per carry, and allowing explosive runs at the 5th-lowest rate, per Michael Florio. Just one player all season (Zach Charbonnet) has finished as a top-10 back against Houston, and Etienne has been held to fewer than nine fantasy points in two of his last three games against them.

Bam Knight & Emari Demercado @ SEA: This split is ugly, and the Cardinals face Seattle, who rank 2nd in overall defensive DVOA and top-10 in limiting RB fantasy points, per Tyler Orginski.

😴 Sleepers

Kyle Monangai vs. NYG: D’Andre Swift is expected to play, but HC Ben Johnson said he’ll ride the “hot hand.” Meanwhile, the G-Men have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to RBs and opposing backs are averaging 5.9 yards per carry against them. Plus, the Bears’ offensive line has been terrific in the running game lately, averaging 186.5 rushing yards over their last four contests, per FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice.

Woody Marks vs. JAX: The Jags have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing RBs through the air over the past five weeks (+3.3), per Ryan Heath. Marks is the pass-catching back in Houston and should see some added work with Nick Chubb battling a foot injury as well.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em

Rome Odunze vs. NYG: He was a dud last week, but Odunze has a good Week 10 matchup against the Giants, who have allowed the 3rd-most receptions, 4th-most receiving yards and 7th-most fantasy points to WRs, per Pat Fitzmaurice. Maybe a bounce back performance will shut his dad up?

Khalil Shakir @ MIA: Buffalo enters Week 10 with the highest implied total (30 points), and Shakir should primarily face Dolphins CB Minkah Fitzpatrick in the slot today, who has been targeted on a league-high 22.3% of routes and has allowed a league-worst 0.54 fantasy points per route run, per Jody Smith.

Garrett Wilson vs. CLE: On paper, the Browns seem like a scary matchup, but their defense at home, compared to on the road, is drastically different:

• Browns at home (4 games): 13.5 PPG allowed, 4 pass TDs allowed, 4 INT

• Browns on the road (4 games): 32.5 PPG allowed, 11 pass TDs allowed, 2 INT

Cleveland has also allowed the 4th-most fantasy PPG to WRs when they play on the road this season, and no team has allowed more receiving TDs to WRs in away games in 2025, per Michelle Magdziuk.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Keenan Allen vs. PIT: “Allen has played 25% and 37% of the Chargers’ snaps over the last two weeks as TE Oronde Gadsden II became a bigger part of the offense and Quentin Johnston got back to full health. It’s hard to trust a part-time player like that in your fantasy lineup.” — Justin Boone

Deebo Samuel vs. DET: In his past three games, Samuel has combined for just 12 catches for 67 yards and no TDs on 17 targets. It doesn’t look like it’ll get much better with Jayden Daniels out, as Deebo has scored 4.9 PPR points or less in two of three previous Marcus Mariota starts this season, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Any Jags WR @ HOU: New addition Jakobi Meyers will likely be shadowed by Derek Stingley Jr., and while Parker Washington will remain in the slot, the Texans have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to slot WRs, per Joey Pollizze. Fade the entire Jags offense today.

😴 Sleepers

Christian Watson vs. PHI: Philly has allowed the 2nd-highest target share to opposing outside WRs this year (45.8%) and the 6th-most receiving yards per game on throws travelling 20+ yards downfield, per Ryan Heath. Watson ran a route on 82% of dropbacks even BEFORE Matthew Golden’s injury last week, and he averages 70.2 receiving yards per game when he has a >70% route share.

Wan’Dale Robinson @ CHI: Chicago ranks 31st in schedule adjusted fantasy PPG allowed to slot WRs (+12.0), per Fantasy Points Data, and Wan’Dale ranks 3rd in percentage of routes run from the slot (69%). Bears nickel CB Nick McCloud will likely shadow Robinson most of the game, and McCloud ranks T-7th most in fantasy points per route run allowed (0.36), per Smash Accept Fantasy’s Jeremy Ekern.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em

Dalton Kincaid @ MIA: He doesn’t run a ton of routes, but he’s just so damn efficient. Kincaid leads all TEs in yards per route run at 2.96 (the 6th-highest mark for a TE since 2015), he’s 2nd among all TEs in targets per route run (.24) in 2025, and he has an Open Score of 83 in ESPN’s player tracking data (the 2nd-highest mark for a TE since 2017), per Kyle Dvorchak.

Kyle Pitts vs. IND: I can’t believe we’re recommending Pitts two weeks in a row… but he leads the Falcons in targets over the last three games, averaging 8.7 per outing. He surprisingly has just one game with fewer than seven fantasy points, and brings some upside this week against the Colts, who have allowed the 2nd-most catches and yards and the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to TEs, per Michael Florio.

Colston Loveland vs. NYG: The rookie broke out last week, catching six passes for 118 yards and two TDs en route to a TE2 fantasy finish. His route share (39% > 63% > 76% > 80%) has increased in four-straight games, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield, making him a frisky streamer against a soft Giants secondary.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Luke Musgrave vs. PHI: He’s an interesting stash rest-of-season, but don’t plug him in right away. The Eagles allow the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to TEs, per Tyler Orginski and should force Green Bay to lean on the run.

T.J. Hockenson vs. BAL: He's had just three targets in each of his past two games and is averaging just 5.3 fantasy PPG in three starts with J.J. McCarthy. Meanwhile, Baltimore has only allowed two TDs to TEs this season, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Hunter Henry @ TB: Since he blew up with eight catches for 90 yards and two TDs in Week 3, Henry has just 21 targets (16/203/1 receiving) over his last six games, per Graham Barfield.

😴 Sleepers

Dalton Schultz vs. JAX: Last week, Schultz caught six receptions—four of which from Davis Mills—for 77 yards. Mills will be starting again this week, where Schultz will face a Jags D that’s allowed the 5th-most receptions and 2nd-most fantasy PPG to the TE position this season, per Michelle Magdziuk.

Cade Otton vs. NE: “With the injuries at receiver, Otton has at least 40 yards in four straight games. The Patriots defense is good, but they’ve been the 8th-best matchup for fantasy TEs.” — Justin Boone

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 13-13-1

🥇 Ravens -4.5 (-105) @ Vikings

• Vikings DC Brian Flores is known for his aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme. But since the start of last season, Lamar Jackson is 1st in EPA per dropback and success rate against the blitz—both by comfortable margins. Plus, the Ravens’ usage of heavy personnel should pose a problem for Minnesota, as no defense has faced more carries or given up more yards to offenses running the ball out of multi-TE sets than the Vikings, per ESPN’s Ben Solak.

🥈 Trey McBride OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-114)

• McBride has 72+ yards in two of his three games with Jacoby Brissett and averaged 8.7 receptions for 85.0 yards and 13.3 targets per game in his first three matchups against Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks. Plus, Seattle gives up the 8th-most receiving yards per game (63.8) and the 5th-most receptions per game (6.6) to TEs, per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥉 Davante Adams OVER 4.5 receptions (-130)

• “Adams has gone over this number in each of his past two games and draws a favorable matchup this week against a struggling 49ers secondary. San Francisco ranks 7th worst in the NFL in coverage grade (49.9), and none of its CBs are among the top 65 in PFF grade this season.” — PFF’s Max Chadwick

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📊 Check out The Fantasy Footballers’ Trade Analyzer Tool, which they’ve made free for the weekend. With fantasy football trade deadlines on the horizon, it’s the perfect time to play around with some potential offers.

📖 Speaking of the Ballers, read Kyle Borgognoni of The Fantasy Footballers’ Midseason Dynasty Tiers & Trade Charts for 2025. Dynasty managers have reached that critical point in the season where many decide to either go all-in, or throw in the towel and tank. Borgognoni helps you decide what to do and how to do it with some general philosophies, positional tiers, trade compensation suggestions, and more.

🎙️Listen to Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings, Starts, Sits with Ryan Heath from Jake Ciely of The Athletic’s All In Speed Run podcast. Ciely and Heath discuss the fantasy impact of recent news around the league, along with Week 10 starts and sits, buy lows, and sell highs.

📺 Watch these two crazy plays from yesterday’s college football action. First, this ridiculous game-winning TD catch by Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. (from potential 1st overall pick, QB Fernando Mendoza). It was such a sick grab that it almost killed Gus Johnson.😂

And then there was this mind-blowing run by Notre Dame RB and future top-5 pick in dynasty rookie drafts, Jeremiyah Love🤯:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Me this past week…

Before we go, we’d be remiss not to acknowledge the heartbreaking passing of Cowboys DE Marshawn Kneeland by a self-inflicted gunshot wound. If you or someone you know is having suicidal thoughts, or you just need someone to talk to, call or text 9-8-8. Mental health issues affect us all, so be sure to look after yourself and your loved ones.

Good luck this week.

See you Tuesday.

- Marcus