Good morning.

It’s Week 12, which means the holidays are approaching, (hopefully) you’re fighting for a playoff spot, and my Browns are starting their 3rd different QB of the year—a tradition unlike any other.

In all seriousness, this is the best time of year. So soak it in, enjoy it, and eat a W while you’re at it.

CHEAT CODE 🧩

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em

Jared Goff vs. NYG: The Giants are allowing more than 20 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs this season and rank 29th in team coverage grade, per PFF’s Beckett Mesko. It also helps that Goff’s playing at home, as the splits for him at home vs. on the road and indoors vs. outdoors are well documented.

Caleb Williams vs. PIT: This is an ideal bounce back game for Williams, as Pittsburgh has the NFL's worst pass defense and has allowed the 10th-most fantasy PPG to QBs this season, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Brock Purdy vs. CAR: Among 43 qualifying passers, he ranks 7th in yards per attempt, 3rd in passing yards per game, 8th in completion percentage over expected, and 15th in catchable target rate. Purdy is a strong start this week against a Panthers D that has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt while ranking 20th in completion percentage over expected and success rate per dropback, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Baker Mayfield @ LAR: He’s finished below the 20 fantasy point mark in three of his last four games. It won’t get any easier this week, as he’ll take on a Rams secondary that has the highest coverage grade in the NFL this season, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.

Daniel Jones @ KC: Indiana Jones has been struggling as of late, totalling three TDs and four INTs in his last two games. Don’t expect it to get much better today, as he and the Colts will travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to QBs and is tied for the fewest TD passes allowed (9), per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith.

Jordan Love vs. MIN: Since the Packers’ bye, Love has been QB17 or worse in four of his six games. Don’t expect much better today against a Vikings D allowing the 6th-fewest passing yards on the season, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

😴 Sleepers

Jacoby Brissett vs. JAX: The Jags’ defense has collapsed over the past two months. They were the No. 3 defense by EPA per passing play allowed in September, but that has fallen to No. 24 in the last two months. And teams have taken notice — the Jags’ pass-funnel defense has faced a +4% pass rate over expected this year, easily the highest mark in the league, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Bryce Young @ SF: He blew up out of no where with 448 yards last week against Atlanta, and now he’ll take on a 49ers team that ranks 30th in defensive success rate and has surrendered the 9th-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs, per Gary Davenport.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em

Ken Walker @ TEN: The Titans have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing RBs (+2.2), the 8th-highest explosive run rate (5.9%), and the 3rd-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.52). That bodes well for Walker, who averages 9.05 yards per carry (4th-most) and a 17.5% explosive run rate (3rd-best) on carries where he wasn’t contacted until at least 2.0 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Alvin Kamara vs. ATL: Since Week 7, Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy PPG to opposing RBs. Six backs have scored at least 12.7 PPR points against them over that span, with eight total TDs, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

TreVeyon Henderson @ CIN: This one feels risky, given the fact that Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to play. But Henderson has averaged 24.3 fantasy points in his three starts and faces a Bengals D that has allowed the most rushing yards and fantasy PPG to opposing RBs, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio. Take a leap of faith that Vrabel will do the right thing and feed the rookie.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Chase Brown vs. NE: RB depth is hard to come by, so I get it if you have no choice but to start him. But in shallower leagues, Brown can be left on your bench against a New England defense that has surrendered the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL, while also allowing the fewest fantasy PPG to RBs in AFC, per Gary Davenport.

Breece Hall @ BAL: Similarly, you may have to start Hall. But just know that 73% of his rush attempts have utilized zone concepts this year (2nd-most), and the Ravens have allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per carry to opposing zone concepts (3.47), per Ryan Heath.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. @ DET: The Lions are No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. Only four backs this season have scored at least 12 PPR points on them, and none since Week 4, per Jamey Eisenberg.

😴 Sleepers

David Montgomery vs. NYG: Monty has averaged 8.5 PPR points in losses compared to 13 in wins this year. He and the Lions are favored by 10.5 points at home against the Giants, and no team has allowed a higher EPA per rush than New York, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Bhayshul Tuten @ ARI: The Cardinals have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, per Jamey Eisenberg. Plus, prior to leaving with an ankle injury in Week 11, Tuten had more carries than Travis Etienne (15-12), finishing with 74 rushing yards and a TD.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em

Jameson Williams vs. NYG: The Giants have deployed man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (40.5%), and Jamo has seen a +74% boost in yards per route run against man coverage than against zone this season, per Ryan Heath.

DeVonta Smith @ DAL: The Cowboys have allowed the most TDs and 3rd-most fantasy PPG to WRs, while also giving up the 7th-most yards to WRs, per Michael Florio. A.J. Brown’s worth a start, too, but we prefer Smith, given Ryan Heath’s note that Dallas plays the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage (79.9%), and against such coverage, Smith sees a +40% boost in his yards per route run.

Michael Wilson vs. JAX: Don’t expect 185 yards again, but Jacksonville has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to WRs and has struggled against No. 1 wideouts, who have averaged 17.1 fantasy PPG, per Jody Smith.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Jordan Addison @ GB: In three games with J.J. McCarthy, Addison has averaged just 2.3 catches and 34.3 yards. Now he faces a Green Bay defense allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to WRs, per Jody Smith.

Ricky Pearsall vs. CAR: He’s earned 16% or more of the targets in just 3-of-11 career games with both Jauan Jennings and George Kittle in the lineup, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Michael Pittman Jr. & Alec Pierce @ KC: The Chiefs have allowed the 4th-fewest yards and TDs to receivers, as well as the 7th-fewest fantasy PPG to the position. They’ve also allowed the 2nd-fewest yards and zero TDs on deep passes, as well as the 5th-fewest yards to out-wide receivers, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Luther Burden III vs. PIT: Burden is coming off a season-high in route rate (61%) and target share (18%). He and the Bears now face a Pittsburgh team that has given up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Darnell Mooney @ NO: With Cousins under center for the first 14 weeks of the 2024 season, Mooney earned a 23.5% adjusted target rate — even with Drake London commanding 29.5% of the looks, per Beckett Mesko. With London sidelined, a significant chunk of that volume is now available for Mooney in Week 12.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em

Hunter Henry @ CIN: Henry has fallen to TE19 on a per game basis and hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. But he gets his easiest matchup of the season this week against a Bengals defense allowing the most fantasy points to TEs by far — 4.6 PPG more than the 2nd-worst defense against TEs, including 12 TDs to the position, per Justin Boone.

Travis Kelce vs. IND: Kelce has the 2nd-most receiving yards among TDs this season, behind only Trey McBride. He has scored more than 12 fantasy points in five of his last six games, and 22+ points in two of his last three. He should stay hot against the Colts, who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points on average to the TE position, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Dallas Goedert @ DAL: Dallas has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to TEs. Plus, the Cowboys utilized two high with 57.6% of their defensive snaps in Week 1, and against two high, Goedert is 2nd on the team with a 22% target per route run rate and 1.69 yards per route run, per Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Jake Ferguson vs. PHI: Over his last four games since CeeDee Lamb returned to the field, Ferguson has just 16/95/3 receiving. His 15% target share in this span is a huge drop off from the front half of this season. Plus, the Eagles have been excellent against TEs all year (29.2 yards per game allowed — 2nd-fewest), per Graham Barfield.

Harold Fannin Jr. @ LV: “The Raiders have held opposing TEs to just 39.5 yards per game (5th-fewest). Fannin has earned at least 19% of the targets in five-straight games, but it’s just hard for him to project well in fantasy when Shedeur Sanders is projecting for just 155 passing yards this week.” — Barfield

T.J. Hockenson @ GB: Another one bites the dust thanks to Nine. In his five games with J.J. McCarthy, Hockenson has had just a 12.9% target share, 17 receiving yards per game, 0.68 yards per route run, and a 13.7% first-read share. In those five games, he has only one red zone target and zero TE1 weekly finishes, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Kyle Pitts @ NO: “Pitts has been underwhelming with just one TD on the year, but the absence of Drake London should increase his volume. The last time London missed a game, Pitts caught nine balls in Week 8 versus the Dolphins.” — Justin Boone

Noah Fant vs. NE: The Patriots are tied for 9th in fantasy points allowed to TEs, per Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton, and Fant should see an uptick in usage given Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 17-15-1

🥇 Patriots OVER 29.5 team points (-115)

• “The Bengals are allowing a league-worst 6.3 yards per play, as well as a league-worst 33.6 points per game — dead last in the league by a wide margin. The Patriots should score at will, as do most Cincinnati opponents.” — FOX Sports’ Will Hill

🥈 Emeka Egbuka OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-110)

• The Rams deploy the 7th-highest rate of Cover 3 (37.1%), and Egbuka averages an elite 2.28 yards per route run against such coverage. L.A. also allows the 9th-most receiving yards per game (115.4) and the 12th-most YPRR (2.05) to receivers aligned out wide, per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥉 Jalen Hurts OVER 205.5 passing yards (-113)

• “The Cowboys have allowed QBs to clear this number in all but two games this season, and they rank 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass. This is the right matchup to get Hurts back on track.” — FTN Fantasy’s Marshall Gershon

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Matt Bowen of ESPN’s Ultimate Guide to the Fantasy Football Playoffs for tips on how to manage your roster ahead of your league’s postseason, including rostering multiple QBs, adding insurance backs, and more.

📖 Read Mark Morales-Smith of SI’s Week 12 Boom or Bust Candidates for names you might want to slide into your lineup if you’re a major underdog today, including Jameis Winston, Sean Tucker, and even Xavier Worthy.

🎙️Listen to J.J. Zachariason’s latest episode of Late-Round Perspectives with Fantasy Points’ Brian Drake, where the two talk about content in the fantasy football industry, mistakes drafters made in 2025, the Patriots backfield, and more.

📺 Watch Fantasy Football Experts Answer KEY Questions for Week 12 from Ryan Wormeli, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown of FantasyPros:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Good luck this week.

See you Tuesday.

- Marcus