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Good morning.

Ever since Thanksgiving, it feels like I’ve just been sitting around eating and watching football all day everyday. So now that it’s Sunday, what better way to celebrate than to continue sitting around eating and watching football?!

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em

Bo Nix @ WAS: He’s been up and down all year, but in three games against bottom-5 units in fantasy points allowed to QBs, Nix has finished as the QB2, QB9, and QB1. Now he draws a Washington defense that allows the 4th-most passing yards per game (249.5) and the 3rd-most TD passes (22), per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith.

Justin Herbert vs. LV: The Chargers are 9.5-point favorites with a top-3 implied total (25.75) today. That’s good news for Herbie, who averages 22.5 fantasy PPG in wins this year, which would rank 2nd-best among QBs playing today, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Jacoby Brissett @ TB: In all six of his starts this season, Brissett has scored at least 18 fantasy points while averaging 314.5 passing yards per game. Since Week 6, he’s the 5th-best QB in fantasy, and over the last four weeks, no team has given up more passing yards per game than the Bucs, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Brock Purdy @ CLE: He struggled through the air last week, throwing for just 193 yards, one TD, and three picks. Things won't get easier for him in Week 13 against a Browns D that has allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, while allowing only one QB to finish within the top-14 at the position since Week 3, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze.

Daniel Jones vs. HOU: Over his last three games, Danny Dimes has thrown four TDs, four INTs, and lost three fumbles. It won’t get any easier this week against Houston’s top-ranked defense, which allows the fewest fantasy points to QBs and has surrendered only 10 TD passes all season. Houston is the only defense yet to allow a top-12 QB in any week, per Jody Smith.

C.J. Stroud @ IND: He’s finally cleared concussion protocol, but don’t get too excited … Stroud is currently the QB20 by fantasy PPG and has just one top-10 weekly finish to his name. Meanwhile, the Colts D ranks 9th in EPA per dropback allowed, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

😴 Sleepers

Tyrod Taylor vs. ATL: The Falcons have allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing passers over the last five weeks (+5.2). Meanwhile, Taylor averages 17.7 fantasy PPG with 6.7 rush attempts, and 32.3 rushing yards per game over his last six full appearances. Those marks would rank 8th-best, 2nd-best, and 2nd-best among QBs playing today, per Ryan Heath.

Cam Ward vs. JAX: He’s hard to trust, but the 1st overall pick threw for 256 yards and a TD last week while running for 37 yards and a score (QB4). He’ll look to build on that today against a Jags D that’s allowed the 6th-most fantasy PPG to the QBs this season, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em

R.J. Harvey @ WAS: With J.K. Dobbins on the shelf, Harvey led Denver’s backfield in snaps at 61%, but it didn’t result in much fantasy production. That should change today, as the Commanders have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, with eight backs scoring at least 13 PPR points against them this season, including seven of the past eight games, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

TreVeyon Henderson vs. NYG: Even with Rhamondre back in the fold, the rookie maintained a solid 65% snap share last week. Hopefully that means he’ll be their lead back going forward, as the Pats have the easiest schedule for fantasy RBs the rest of the way, beginning with a Giants’ defense that’s giving up the 2nd-most points to the position, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

Travis Etienne @ TEN: Over the last four weeks, Etienne is the 7th-best RB in fantasy football, totalling at least 18 touches in each game and a 13% target share in three of the four. The best part though? Since Week 9, no RB has more red zone touches than him, and only one team has allowed more rushing TDs to opposing RBs this season than the Titans, per Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Woody Marks @ IND: He’s taken over as the lead back in Houston and many experts are touting him as a start this week, but we aren’t falling for that again. After recommending him a few times over the last month, we’ve come to realize he just isn’t that good — Marks ranks 42nd in yards after contact per carry and 25th in breakaway rate. He is also outside the top 20 RBs in yards per route run, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Aaron Jones @ SEA: He’s averaged just 10.5 fantasy PPG since his return from injury. Plus, the Vikings travel this week to face the Seahawks, who have allowed the 2nd-fewest rush yards to RBs and just four rushing TDs. They’ve also allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per carry and are bottom two in yards before contact per carry and explosive run rate, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Rico Dowdle vs. LAR: He has just 25 carries for 83 yards over the past two games combined, and now faces a stout Rams defense that has surrendered the 3rd-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs this year, per Gary Davenport.

😴 Sleepers

Devin Neal @ MIA: With Alvin Kamara out, Neal will assume the starting RB role for New Orleans. He showed some promise in the receiving game last week, and should have a chance to do more of the same against the Dolphins D that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, per Jamey Eisenberg. In fact, a back has scored at least 12.7 PPR points in two of the past three games against Miami, so look for Neal to do the same.

Kenneth Gainwell vs. BUF: He’s now had back-to-back games with over 100 scrimmage yards and 18+ fantasy points, while playing on over 50% of the Steelers‘ offensive snaps in three straight games. Gainwell will have a chance to stay hot today against a Bills D that’s allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game (148.9), 2nd-most yards per carry (5.3) and the most rushing TDs per game (1.6) in the NFL this season, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em

Jaylen Waddle vs. NO: The Saints run Cover 3 at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL (39.7%), and Waddle has the 2nd-most air yards of any WR against Cover 3 (455) this season, while averaging 20.2 fantasy PPG in games he’s faced at least a 37% rate of such coverage (excluding one severe-weather game). Also, New Orleans has allowed the 6th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing outside WRs since Week 8, and Waddle has run 77% of his routes on the outside since Tyreek Hill’s injury, per Ryan Heath.

Ladd McConkey vs. LV: Over the last eight weeks, McConkey is tied for the 12th-most fantasy points among WRs. You can expect that trend to continue today against a Vegas team that’s allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to the position, per Justin Boone.

Khalil Shakir @ PIT: In four of the past five games, Shakir has at least a 23% target share, while finishing above 30% in three of them. Plus, the Steelers allow the 6th-most yards per game to slot receivers this season, per Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Deebo Samuel vs. DEN: The Broncos rank 3rd in total defense and points allowed. They’ve given up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to WRs and only two WR TDs all season. Deebo has also struggled with Marcus Mariota under center, averaging 39.4 receiving yards in Mariota’s five starts, compared to 54.6 with Jayden Daniels, per Jody Smith.

All 49ers WRs @ CLE: The Browns have allowed the 2nd-fewest receptions and 2nd-fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs this year, per Joey Pollizze. Plus, the weather in Cleveland is expected to be ugly today.

All Colts WRs vs. HOU: Houston has allowed the 7th-fewest yards and just six total TDs to WRs this season, while yielding league lows in passer rating and completion percentage on throws to WRs, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Troy Franklin @ WAS: We’ve already mentioned how back the Commanders D is. But it’s also important to note that Franklin has out-targeted Courtland Sutton in six straight games. He has a 27% target share and a monstrous 48% air yards share over his past five appearances, while earning a team-high first read target share of 28% during that stretch, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Kayshon Boutte vs. NYG: He’s been very hit-or-miss this year, but he has a chance to boom against a Giants D that has surrendered the 5th-most fantasy PPG to WRs, per Gary Davenport.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em

Theo Johnson @ NE: Jaxson Dart’s return bodes well for Johnson, who was the TE10 in fantasy PPG during the rookie QB’s seven starts. The Patriots are also a plus-matchup for him, since they’ve given up the 11th-most fantasy points to TEs this year, per Justin Boone — despite only facing a couple of stars at the position.

Dalton Schultz @ IND: He’s poised for a bounce-back performance against the Colts, who have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points and 2nd-most receiving yards to opposing TEs this year, per Joey Pollizze.

Juwan Johnson @ MIA: J.J. has the 2nd most targets, receptions and receiving TDs on the Saints this season (behind only Chris Olave in each metric). It’s now been five straight weeks that Johnson has hit double-digit fantasy points, and he gets a nice matchup today against a Dolphins D that’s allowed the 4th-most fantasy PPG to TEs, per Michelle Magdziuk.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Hunter Henry vs. NYG: He was basically a non-factor in his previous eight games before he went off last week, turning his 31 targets into just 21/257/2 receiving across Weeks 4-11. Meanwhile, the Giants have been good against TEs this season, holding them to the 5th-fewest yards per target and 8th-fewest yards per game, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

T.J. Hockenson @ SEA: In his last 18 games with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison active, Hockenson has turned his 98 targets into 76/742/2 receiving (TE25 by fantasy PPG), per Barfield.

Pat Freiermuth vs. BUF: He came threw with a TD last week, but has otherwise been held to single digits in three of his last four games and eight times overall this season. Plus, this week’s matchup against the Bills is a brutal one — just one TE (Travis Kelce) has scored more than 7.5 points against them, and even Kelce scored just 12.6 points in when he did it in Week 9, per SI’s Michael Fabiano.

😴 Sleepers

Brenton Strange @ TEN: He looked great in his first game back from a hip injury with five catches for 93 yards on five targets last week. That's now three healthy games in a row with at least 10.5 PPR points going back to Week 4, and I would expect more of the same this week against Tennessee, who has allowed two TEs in the past three games to score at least 11.1 PPR points, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Taysom Hill @ MIA: With Alvin Kamara getting hurt last week, Hill ended up leading the team with 10 carries. New Orleans had four goal-line snaps in that game, and Hill played all of them, while also adding two red-zone passes and running five routes. Expect him to sneak into the backfield enough to produce today against a Dolphins D that has allowed the 4th-most rushing yards in the NFL, per Michael Florio.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 18-17-1

🥇 Josh Allen OVER 234.5 passing yards (-112)

• Allen has averaged 292 passing yards over his last three games and will take on a Steelers D that has allowed 278 passing yards per game across its last five outings, giving up at least 245 yards to four of those QBs, per The Huddle’s Dan Mader.

🥈 Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-130)

• BTJ has gone over this number in six out his eight games this season and has a decent matchup against a Titans’ defense that has allowed the 12th most passing yards per game (236.6), per Fantasy Points’ Bill O’Brien.

🥉 49ers @ Browns UNDER 35.5 points (-120)

• This one’s simple — neither team has been moving the ball well, Cleveland’s defense is elite, and the forecast is calling for possible rain and/or snow along with 25-35 mph winds and occasional wind gusts over 40 mph, per Luke Christensen.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

There’s been a lot of debate surrounding the Eagles’ decision to go for two late in Friday’s game…

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Derek Brown of FantasyPros’ The Primer: Week 13 Edition for a comprehensive guide of everything you need to know ahead of today’s games, including starts, sits, rankings, and breakdowns of every matchup around the league.

📖 Read ESPN’s Week 13 picks, predictions, schedule, odds, fantasy tips for a comprehensive preview of today’s action, including reports, stats, betting insight, hot takes, projections, and more.

🎙️Listen to Week 13 Preview + Fantasy Film Room: Can Jaxson Dart CARRY You to a Title?! + 4 Bold Playoff Predictions from Justin Boone and Matt Harmon of Yahoo Fantasy Forecast. The title says it all really, as the guys offer insight for every matchup while also diving into Boone's 6 pack of fantasy questions.

📺 Watch The ENTIRE History of NFL Thanksgiving from NFL Throwback. The Butt Fumble still makes me laugh to this day:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Good luck this week.

See you Tuesday.

- Marcus