Good morning.

It’s a big day today! Whether you’re jockeying for playoff seeding, trying to sneak into the dance, or just hoping to end the year on a good note, these start/sit decisions could make or break your season.

We’ll do our best to help you make the right calls. But ultimately, if your season comes down to choosing between Sincere McCormick and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, that’s on you.

Injury Report 🚑

McConkey Could Give it a Go

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey battled through injuries much of his college career and is doing the same in the pros. Despite shoulder and knee injuries, there’s reportedly a legitimate chance he suits up against KC tonight. As always, though, double check the latest reports prior to kickoff.

Here’s how other players with the Questionable tag are trending…

👍 Expected to play:

• Bucky Irving

• D’Andre Swift

• D.J. Moore

• George Pickens

• Jakobi Meyers

• Keon Coleman

• Dalton Kincaid

👎 Unlikely to play:

• Alexander Mattison

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Malik Nabers

• Raheem Mostert

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Tua Tagovaila vs NYJ: Tua has scored at least 29.2 fantasy points three games in a row, and he has at least 21.5 points in four of his last five. He’ll look to keep it rollin’ against the Jets, who will be without standout CB Sauce Gardner. They’ve allowed two of the last three QBs they’ve faced to score at least 30.1 points, and four QBs in their last seven games have scored at least 28.4 points against them, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Sam Darnold vs ATL: Darnold has thrown multiple TDs in five of his last six games, and today he takes on a Falcons’ defense allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to QBs with an NFL-low 15 sacks this season. Minnesota has a healthy 26.5-point implied team total in this fast-paced matchup, making Darnold a top-10 QB this week, per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don.

Justin Herbert @ KC: Last week was a rough one for Herbie, but he averaged 21 fantasy PPG in the five games prior to Week 13. And this week, he faces the pass-funnel Chiefs, who have allowed the 5th-most passing yards and 8th-most passing TDs since Week 9, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Kirk Cousins @ MIN: The revenge game narrative might not be enough for Cousins in this one. Other than his 8 TDs in two games against the Bucs, Cousins has a 9:12 TD-to-INT ratio in his other 10 starts this season. He also ranks 28th-of-35 QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.35) when blitzed, and the Vikings blitz 2nd most often (39%) in the league, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Aaron Rodgers @ MIA: The only this worse than Rodgers’ upcoming Netflix doc has been his play this season. Over the past four weeks, he’s averaging a league-low 5.4 yards per pass attempt, which is worse than Cooper Rush, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young. The Dolphins are also very good at home against opposing QBs, giving up an average of just 12.9 fantasy PPG to QBs, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry.

Bryce Young @ PHI: It’s been a nice run lately for the former 1st overall pick, but he’s destined to come back to Earth this week against a tough Philly secondary. Since Week 8, they’ve allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the 3rd-fewest passer rating, and the 4th-lowest completion percentage over expectation and success rate per dropback, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers:

Will Levis vs JAX: Levis has passed for two TDs in three of his last four games, and the Titans rank in the bottom five in the league at defending the QB position, per PlayerProfiler’s Theo Gremminger.

Jameis Winston @ PIT: He’s only on the Sleepers list this week because of his matchup: the Steelers are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, per RotoBaller’s Matt Terelle. But Jameis is still a high-upside QB2, since he has a 5,539 yard pace through five starts. The Browns have also shown they’ll throw the ball frequently regardless of the matchup, dicing up a stingy Broncos secondary for 497 yards on 58 attempts last week.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Tyrone Tracy Jr. vs NO: Since Week 5, he’s averaged 14.1 fantasy PPG with just two games under nine fantasy points. Meanwhile, the Saints have allowed the 7th-most fantasy PPG to RBs. That includes allowing explosive runs at the 7th-highest rate and yielding a league-high average to backs of 5.2 YPC, per Michael F. Florio.

Tony Pollard vs JAX: The Jags defense has allowed 100+ scrimmage yards to a RB in five straight games. During that same stretch, they’ve also given up a league-high 31.0 fantasy PPG to the position and allow the 2nd-most receiving yards per game to backs, per Matthew Berry.

Isaac Guerendo (vs CHI), Braelon Allen (@ MIA), and Zach Charbonnet (@ ARI) are worthy spot-starts given injuries to their teams’ starters. All their opponents are middle-of-the-pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, so they aren’t smash starts, but their workload alone should make them free FLEX options off the bench/waiver wire.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Gus Edwards @ KC: He's yet to score more than 7.1 PPR points in any game this season, and even though J.K. Dobbins is on IR, Kansas City is No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs — only five backs have scored more than 12 PPR points against them this season, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Nick Chubb @ PIT: Chubb has been losing work to Jerome Ford lately, especially in the passing game. He hasn’t looked at all like his old self yet, averaging an anemic 3.0 YPC since returning from his catastrophic knee injury. And today he’ll face a stout Pittsburgh defense allowing the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks, per Dalton Del Don.

Chuba Hubbard @ PHI: With Jonathon Brooks in the fold, Hubbard’s RB touch share plummeted from 89% in Week 12 to 57% in Week 13. Last week, Brooks also got both of the Panthers’ goal-line rushes and 100% of their RB targets. It also doesn’t help that Philly allows the 5th-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs this season and, since Week 4, Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams are the only two backs to rush for more than 63 yards on them, per Matthew Berry.

😴 Sleepers:

Jerome Ford @ PIT: As noted earlier, Ford’s been stealing more work from Nick Chubb lately, so there’s hope that momentum could continue this week — especially in the passing game. While Pittsburgh looks like a tough matchup on paper, at least one opposing RB has hit 17+ fantasy points in eight of the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ last nine games, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

D’Andre Swift @ SF: This isn’t the San Fran defense of old. “Over the past two weeks, the Niners have surrendered 389 yards on the ground. They also haven’t tackled particularly well, giving up the most yards after contact since Week 10. Swift should find success -– especially if he can find his way into the end zone.” — NFL.com’s Marcas Grant

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

Calvin Ridley vs JAX: With Levis back at QB these last four weeks, Ridley leads the Titans in targets (27), en route to 16/280/2 receiving (14.0 fantasy PPG). On the other side of the ball, the Jags secondary has reverted back to playing man coverage, deploying it on 60% and 42% of their opponents' pass plays in each of their last two games. Ridley is WR5 in yards per route run (2.99) as has dominated targets (34% share – WR3) vs. man coverage, per Graham Barfield.

Jakobi Meyers @ TB: Meyers has 11+ targets and 97+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games. Plus, Tampa allows the 4th-most schedule adjusted fantasy points to WRs over the last 5 weeks, per Chris O’Brien.

Jordan Addison vs ATL: Addison has raised his stock in recent weeks to the WR36 in fantasy PPG, with top 24 WR showings in three of his last five games. He should crush this week against a Falcons secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards per game and 4th-most PPR points per target to perimeter WRs, per Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

All Panthers WRs @ PHI: Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have allowed only three WRs to score 12+ points against them (Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp), per Michelle Magdziuk. Those names hold a little more weight than Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, and David Moore, don’t ya think?

Brian Thomas Jr. @ TEN: Mac Jones is starting at QB for the Jaguars, and the Titans have given up the 5th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers this season, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Deebo Samuel vs CHI: “Samuel has been a disappointment for fantasy managers this season, and that will likely continue Sunday against a Chicago defense surrendering the 3rd-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts in 2024.” — Gary Davenport

😴 Sleepers:

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs JAX: NWI’s eight TDs on 20 total catches has been an all-time fluke. But if you dig deeper, you’ll see he had a season-high eight targets last week and has snap shares of 92, 97, 100, 85, 90 and 100% in his last six games. The Jags are the 3rd-easiest draw for opposing wideouts, per Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski, so expect Westbrook-Ikhine to continue beating the odds.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling @ NYG: Much like NWI, MVS is another three-initial WR with all-time efficiency this season. He’s turned his 11 targets into a ridiculous 8 receptions for 237 yards and four TDs with the Saints, while leading the team in routes in back-to-back games (80% share). Meanwhile, the Giants allow the 5th-most deep passing yards (55.3 per game) and a league-high 71% completion rate on throws of 20+ air yards, per Graham Barfield.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Jonnu Smith vs NYJ: “Smith leads the Dolphins in target share (21.5%), first-read share (26.3%) and designed targets since Miami’s Week 6 bye. He leads all pass catchers in first downs per route run over that span. He’s been fantasy’s TE1 over the last three weeks, and Smith should remain busy Sunday.” — Dalton Del Don

Cade Otton vs LV: He’s been slumping lately, but last week, Otton’s seven targets were 2nd on the team behind only Mike Evans. Otton also had a couple drops, including one in the end zone. But fortunately, the Raiders allow the most schedule adjusted fantasy points to TEs by far with +13.1, per Chris O’Brien. Look for Otton to bounce back.

Jake Ferguson vs CIN: The Bengals have allowed the 5th-most receiving yards, 2nd-most receiving TDs, and 2nd-most fantasy points on average to the TE position in 2024. Over the Bengals' last eight games, they have allowed seven TEs to score 15+ points against them — they let Mark Andrews, Pat Freiermuth, and Will Dissly to each score 18 points against them over their last three games, per Michelle Magdziuk.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Kyle Pitts @ MIN: Pitts has scored 9.5 PPR points or less four games in a row and has just five targets in his past two outings with one catch for nine yards. On top of that, the Vikings haven’t allowed a TE to score a TD since Week 4, and Pitts only has two games with a TD this entire season — including none since Week 8, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Cole Kmet @ SF: He’s been up-and-down all season, and today projects to be another “down” day for Kmet. The Niners have allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy PPG to TEs. That includes the 3rd-fewest yards and just three TDs, per Michael F. Florio.

Mike Gesicki @ DAL: “Gesicki caught five passes for 53 yards in last week’s loss to the Steelers, but it was his first good game since the Bengals got Tee Higgins back. I wouldn’t chase the points against the Cowboys, who have allowed just 44.3 receiving yards per game to TEs.” — SI’s Michael Fabiano

😴 Sleepers:

Noah Gray vs LAC: In the past three games, Gray has averaged 14.9 fantasy PPG with 4 TDs, per Fantasy Football Empire’s Jeff Boggis. Look for the Chiefs to continue to utilize 2TE sets, especially in the red zone.

Grant Calcaterra vs CAR: With Dallas Goedert on IR, Calcaterra returns to sleeper/streamer territory, especially given his matchup this week — Carolina has allowed the 8th-most receiving yards and the most fantasy PPG to TEs, per Derek Brown.

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 25-14 (3-0 last week)

🥇 Alvin Kamara anytime TD (-150) @ NYG

• The Giants have have allowed 1,417 rushing yards to RBs, 5th-most in the NFL, and they just lost DT Dexter Lawrence to a season-ending elbow injury. Kamara hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6, but is averaging 22.1 touches per game and should see an uptick in goal line opportunities following Taysom Hill's season-ending knee injury, per USA Today’s Jacob Camenker.

🥈 SEA @ ARI UNDER 44.5 total points (-110)

• Divisional games are always tough, and these teams just played a 16-6 game two weeks ago. Bank on another low scoring affair.

🥉 Cooper Kupp UNDER 69.5 receiving yards vs BUF

• Puka Nacua has out-targeted Kupp in four of the five games they've both started and finished since returning from injury. And now he'll be facing a Buffalo secondary that gives up only 1.37 yards per route run to receivers, 2nd only to Philadelphia as the lowest number in football, per ESPN’s Ben Solak.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Matt Bowen of ESPN’s Ultimate Guide to the Fantasy Football Playoffs. Bowen offers some great tips for those heading into the postseason, like rostering multiple QBs, picking up insurance backs, and more.

📖 Read Joe Dolan of Fantasy Points’ Week 14 WR/CB Matchups, where he uses Fantasy Points Data to identify specific WR/CB matchups as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

📖 Read Close Calls: Week 14’s Toughest Lineup Decisions by Gary Davenport of Footballguys, where he breaks down some of this week’s most difficult decisions, like Justin Herbert vs Jameis Winston and Chuba Hubbard vs Isiah Pacheco.

🎙️ Listen to How to Start a Playoff Best Ball Draft from Legendary Upside. The guys offer their favorite playoff stacks and other strategies for those of you looking to keep your fantasy season going via Playoff Best Ball.

📺 Watch the College Football Selection Show today @ 12:00pm ET on ESPN, where the first 12-team field in College Football Playoff history will be revealed.

📺 Watch this week’s edition of Steve Smith’s Route of the Week, where he use game tape to break down Jerry Jeudy’s big night on MNF. This was a surprise, given Smith’s beef with Jeudy last year when he called him a “JAG.”

TWEET OF THE DAY

Remember: anyone can win once the playoffs start. You just have to find a way into the dance.

Good luck this week.

- Marcus