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Good morning.

It’s the regular season finale, your playoff hopes are on the line, and four key teams are on a bye. This is the time of year where you gotta do what you gotta do…

So whether you're fighting for a playoff spot, jockeying for seeding, or just trying to play spoiler, we’ve got the starts, sits, and sleepers that’ll hopefully get you the dub you need.

Let’s get after it…

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em

Jordan Love vs. CHI: Chicago both plays man and blitzes at above-average rates. Love is 3rd in yards, 2nd in pass TDs and 1st (by far) in EPA against man coverage, while also ranking 1st in EPA and 2nd in TDs when blitzed. On top of that, Chicago has allowed the 4th-most passing TDs and is in the top 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to QBs, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Baker Mayfield vs. NO: Despite his recent struggles and injured shoulder, Baker’s a solid start against this Saints defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt, the 12th-highest passer rating and success rate per dropback, and the 3rd-highest completion percentage over expected, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

Jacoby Brissett vs. LAR: Despite the tough matchup against the Rams, you have to start Brissett. The veteran has finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in all seven of his starts and is averaging the 5th-most fantasy PPG (21.3), per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Justin Herbert vs. PHI: On plays without LT Joe Alt on the field, the Chargers rank 27th in EPA per dropback and 15th in passing success rate. They looked competent last week against the Raiders, but Philly’s defense should pose more of a challenge — they’ve generated pressure at the 11th-highest rate this year, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Caleb Williams @ GB: Green Bay has allowed the 5th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs. The Packers also rank 6th in passing yards allowed per game (186.5) and 9th in TD passes allowed (15), per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith.

Lamar Jackson vs. PIT: He has failed to reach 8 fantasy points in any of his last three games, with five turnovers and zero TDs in that span. He doesn’t look healthy — averaging just 19.6 rushing yards per game since returning from injury in Week 9. Plus, he’s been held to 14.9 fantasy PPG against Pittsburgh over his career, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Tyler Shough @ TB: Over the past three games, the rookie has averaged just under 15 fantasy PPG ahead of a matchup with a Buccaneers team that has given up the 6th-most fantasy PPG to QBs, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Daniel Jones @ JAX: Six of the last seven QBs to face the Jags have put up at least 20 fantasy points against them, including Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith and Davis Mills, who all scored over 26 points, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em

R.J. Harvey @ LV: Las Vegas has allowed three RBs to finish top-12 at the position over the last two weeks, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze. That, combined with Harvey’s consistent goal line work since J.K. Dobbins went down, means he’s a prime candidate to find pay dirt this week.

Quinshon Judkins vs. TEN: This could be a rare positive game script for Cleveland, plus the Titans have allowed the 9th-most fantasy PPG and 2nd-most rushing TDs to RBs in 2025, per Michelle Magdziuk.

Ken Walker @ ATL: Seattle enters the week as 7.5-point favorites against the Falcons, who give up the 10th most fantasy points to RBs, per FTN Fantasy’s Tyler Orginski. Walker may not even need a full workload to deliver this week.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Ashton Jeanty vs. DEN: His terrible offensive line has forced him to average just 1.2 yards before contact per attempt, which is dead-last among qualifying RBs. Things aren't likely to get any better this week against the Broncos, who are 5th in the league in run defense at 93.1 yards per game, per Gary Davenport.

D’Andre Swift @ GB: The Bears’ backfield with Swift and Kyle Monangai has become more of a 1A/1B situation. Plus, Green Bay allows the 9th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs, per Jody Smith.

Woody Marks @ KC: Even though he's taken over the Houston backfield ahead of Nick Chubb, Marks has scored 7.9 PPR points or less in three games in a row despite getting at least 17 total touches in each outing. It also doesn't help that the Chiefs have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

😴 Sleepers

Devin Neal @ TB: With the Saints as 8.5-point underdogs, the offense should lean heavily on the short passing game. Tampa Bay has allowed a league-high 56.8 receiving yards per game to backs, while allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to RBs, per Jody Smith.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. @ MIN: He'll have room to run against the Vikings' 23rd-ranked run defense, which has surrendered a rushing TD in six consecutive games (seven in total during that span), per Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em

Emeka Egbuka vs. NO: It’s been a struggle for Egbuka managers lately, but look for a bounce back today. His struggles have mostly been against two-high looks (0.81 yards per route run vs. two-high / 2.23 YPRR vs. single-high, per Fantasy Points Data). Since Week 3, the Saints have the 6th-highest rate of single-high coverage (58.9%) and are allowing the 2nd-most PPR points per target and 14th-most receiving yards per game to outside WRs, per Derek Brown.

Christian Watson vs. CHI: Since returning to the lineup in Week 8, Watson is the WR24 in fantasy PPG and has finished as a top-12 WR in two of his last three appearances. Meanwhile, the Bears are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs, per Justin Boone, and just allowed A.J. Brown to dominate them with 10 grabs, 132 yards and two scores.

Jakobi Meyers vs. IND: He’s been the 13th best WR in fantasy football over the past three weeks, averaging 15.9 PPG with a 23% target share during that time frame, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry. Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed at least 90 receiving yards to a WR in three straight games, and shutdown corner Sauce Gardner isn’t expected to play.

BONUS START: Michael Wilson vs. LAR: This one’s simple — Marvin Harrison Jr. has been ruled OUT. Wilson averaged 27.7 PPR points in two games without MHJ, while racking up a 32% target share, per Kyle Dvorchak.

❌ Sit ‘Em

DeVonta Smith @ LAC: “Los Angeles allows the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to QBs and the fewest to WRs. Saquon will need to carry the offense on the ground, and there just won’t be enough volume left for DeVonta to deliver.” — Tyler Orginski

D.K. Metcalf @ BAL: He's been brutal lately, scoring 9.9 PPR points or less in four of his past five games. He's also gone four games in a row without a receiving TD, and he has fewer than 50 receiving yards in each game over that span, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Xavier Worthy vs. HOU: Houston has allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points and 3rd-fewest catches to opposing receivers this season, per USA Today’s Jack McKessy. Look for their pass rush to get after Patrick Mahomes today, causing quick dump-offs to Rashee Rice, rather than deep shots to Worthy.

😴 Sleepers

Adonai Mitchell vs. MIA: Since joining the Jets, Mitchell has a 30% target share with at least one end zone target in all three games. Plus, over the last four weeks, Miami allows the 7th-most fantasy PPG to opposing WRs, per Matthew Berry.

Luther Burden III @ GB: Rome Odunze (foot) is OUT. Plus, the Packers play zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL (78.4%), and Burden is by far the Bears' best wideout against zone coverage, with 0.26 targets, 2.54 yards, and 0.51 fantasy points per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em

Dalton Kincaid (if healthy) vs. CIN: This one’s simple…

If Kincaid (hamstring/knee) can’t go, you can stream Dawson Knox instead.

Juwan Johnson @ TB: Since the trade of Rashid Shaheed, Johnson is up to a 62.4% slot rate while averaging 1.88 YPRR, 5.1 YAC per catch, and 12.9 fantasy PPG, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Kyle Pitts vs. SEA: Since Week 7, Pitts has a 23% target share — the 5th-highest of any TE during that stretch. Meanwhile, only two teams allow more receiving yards per game to opposing TEs than the Seattle Seahawks, per Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Oronde Gadsden II vs. PHI: After producing double-digit fantasy points in four straight games from Week 6 to Week 9, his target share has fallen way off ahead of a matchup with an Eagles defense allowing the 4th-fewest PPR PPG to TEs this year, per Gary Davenport.

Dallas Goedert @ LAC: He’s scored 4.7 PPR points or less three games in a row, and he hasn't scored a TD since Week 8. Meanwhile, the Chargers have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs, and only four guys have scored double digits in PPR against them all season, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Colston Loveland @ GB: The underlying metrics are encouraging, but Loveland has had only one TE1 weekly finish (TE3) since Week 10. Plus, Green Bay has held TEs to the 7th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 11th-fewest fantasy PPG, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Brenton Strange vs. IND: Strange has accounted for eight catches, 138 yards and a TD in his two games since returning to the lineup. You can expect that production to continue since the Colts are the 4th-easiest matchup for fantasy TEs, per Justin Boone.

Darren Waller @ NYJ: He returned to the lineup last week and led the Dolphins with 47 receiving yards while just missing a potential TD. He’s the clear red-zone target for Miami, while willl come in handy this week against a Jets D that’s allowed the 3rd-most TDs to TEs, per Michael Florio.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 19-19-1 (Jeff Fisher would be proud)

🥇 Rashee Rice OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-110)

• Houston deploys Cover 3 and Cover 4 at a 54.3% clip, and Rice averages a team-bests 2.79 yards per route run against those coverages. He also runs 43% of his routes from the slot, while the Texans give up the 10th-most receiving yards per game (78.3) and the 10th-most yards per route run (1.87) to slot receivers, per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥈 Broncos @ Raiders UNDER 40.5 total points (-110)

• These teams played in Week 10 and combined for just 17 points, as Denver won 10-7. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, 2nd in sack %, and 4th in points allowed this season. Meanwhile, the Raiders aren’t a great defense, but they are a top-5 team in EPA/Rush and held Denver to just 84 rushing yards and 3.9 yards per play in their first meeting this season, per SI’s Peter Dewey.

🥉 Kyren Williams anytime TD scorer (+105)

• Williams has 10 TDs in 12 games this year, with at least one in four of his last five games. The Rams play the Cardinals, who are one of just six teams to allow at least 15 total TDs to opposing RBs this season, per CBS Sports’ Owen O’Brien.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Matthew Berry’s 10 Facts You Need To Know Before Week 14 of 2025 season, where The Talented Mr. Roto himself gives you lineup-altering insights in ways only he could.

📖 Read Christopher Allen of Fantasy Life’s Week 14 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet, where he reviews all the important news and information impacting fantasy football, like injury updates, advantageous matchups, weather and more.

🎙️Listen to Angles and Upside Week 14 w/ Rich Hribar from Legendary Upside, where Hribar and host Pat Kerrane talk through Reeb’s Worksheet and Pat’s Walkthrough, highlighting key starts/sits and DFS plays. It’s a doozy (3 hrs 34 mins) but totally worth it.

📺 Watch Every Team's Chance To Make The Playoffs Week 14 from NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Go get that W.✊ 

See you in the playoffs.

- Marcus