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Good morning.

Week 1 is always a blast, but it’s also an easy time to overreact. In the words of Aaron Rodgers “R-E-L-A-X. Relax” After Week 1 last year, Drake Maye was QB18, Jahmyr Gibbs was RB36, George Pickens was WR65, and Trey McBride was TE17, per Alfredo Brown.

So today, we’ll look at what to believe from last weekend, and what seems like a fluke.

Let’s get after it…

Today's newsletter highlights:

  • Market Trends 📈

  • Week 2 Rankings 📊

  • QUICK SLANT

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

Jadarian Price // Steph Chambers, Getty Images

💰 Buy Jadarian Price. He certainly passed the eye test from an explosiveness standpoint. It also helps that he ran 11 of the 19 backfield routes in Week 1, which is a higher route share than Kenneth Walker had last year (40.7% vs. 32.2%), per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen. Price’s 70% success rate in Week 1 was 3rd-best among RBs with 10 or more carries in the opener, so he should see a nice boost in carries as they play without Sam Darnold for the next few games.

📉 Sell high on David Montgomery. Buffalo had one of the worst rush defenses in the league last season and still held Monty to 60 yards on 20 carries on Sunday. His three total TDs saved the day, and while that goal line work isn’t going anywhere, it’s difficult to rely on. Plus, much of his other usage is more split than you might realize…

😌 Relax, CMC managers. This was the first week the 49ers gave two different RBs 10+ rush attempts since Week 17, 2023. McCaffrey still recorded 6.80 YPC and 0.30 missed tackles forced per attempt, two marks he failed to eclipse once in 2025. He also earned eight targets, a 66.7% snap share inside the 10-yard line, and a 20.0% explosive run rate, per Fantasy Points’ Kyle Menton. Reports are that he was playing through cramps, which would explain the limited workload.

📉 Sell Omarion Hampton. Chargers RBs ranked dead last in expected fantasy points based on usage in Week 1 (11.2), per Yahoo’s Hayden Winks. To make matters worse, Hampton ranked 4th worst in yards over expected per attempt (-0.72) in Week 1, per NFL Next Gen Stats. While I’m still hopeful the Bolts’ offense as a whole will figure it out, their October-November stretch makes me awfully nervous (SEA, DEN, KC, LAR, HOU, BAL).

💩 Fade Quinshon Judkins. You simply do not want any Cleveland Browns this year. Judkins hasn't averaged over 4.0 YPC in a game since Week 5 of last season. His stats over that span:

  • 170 carries

  • 513 rushing yards

  • 3.0 yards per carry

(per Underdog)

Wide Receiver

Jamo // FOX Sports

💰 Buy Jameson Williams. Jamo, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta constituted a whopping 79.4% of Detroit’s pass targets in the opener, with Williams having a strong 23% himself and finishing 17th among non-QBs in expected fantasy points, per John Hansen. He also had a 90.2% route share (top-12). Jamo left 40+ yards and a TD on the field due to drops, but non-ball-knowers might just see his final stat line (4-45-0) and be willing to sell.

Hold Drake London. Michael Penix Jr. will be under center sooner or later, and he absolutely FEEDS London. From Weeks 4-11 of last year, London averaged 11.2 targets, 7.3 receptions, 108.5 yards and 24.2 fantasy PPG with Penix. He was fantasy’s WR1, while recording five 100-yard games over that stretch. During that span, he ranked 2nd in TPRR (31%) and 1st in target share (36%), while accounting for a whopping 75% of Atlanta’s end zone targets, per Fantasy Life’s Adam Pfeifer.

💰 Buy DK Metcalf. The Steelers were 3rd in dropback rate over expected (11%), as Aaron Rodgers attempted 40 passes. Secondly, while Metcalf still saw plenty of deep targets (his 171 air yards ranked 2nd in football), his slant route rate skyrocketed to 23.8% on Sunday, wayyy up from his 13.8% rate from a season ago. That’s significant because over the last two seasons, no QB has targeted slant routes more than Rodgers (96), per Adam Pfiefer.

📉 Sell Marvin Harrison Jr. In a game where Jacoby Brissett attempted 37 passes and threw for 277 yards, Marv managed just one catch on three targets for 31 yards. Harrison hasn’t finished with 100+ yards in his last 22 games, per FantasyPros’ Tim Brosnan.

💰 Buy Matthew Golden. The 2nd-year speedster led the team in route share (87%) and target share (26%), and he barely trailed Christian Watson with a still-impressive 109 air yards, per FantasyPros’ Ted Chmyz.

😓 Ja’Marr Chase always sucks Week 1. Don’t make any rash decisions. Here are his total fantasy points from the last four season openers…

  • 2023: 6.6

  • 2024: 9.2

  • 2025: 3.6

  • 2026: 2.2

QB / TE

T-Law // NFL.com

🚀 Trevor Lawrence is HIM. In his last nine games…

  • 9-0 Record (1st)

  • 2,444 Yards (4th)

  • 28 TDs (1st)

  • 111.5 NFL (1st)

(per Action News Jax’s Daniel Griffis)

👀 Brock Purdy is soooo underrated…

Hold Justin Herbert. Some say he looked bad on tape (like Hayden Winks), while other data (mostly from Fantasy Points) suggest he was actually pretty good. The truth is it’s been one week and we don’t really know what to believe. As I mentioned with Hampton, I’m nervous about the Chargers’ schedule, but the ceiling is high enough here that I’m willing to hold.

🏆 Dalton Kincaid could be a league-winner. “What if Kincaid is healthy this year?” wasn’t a question I asked myself enough this offseason. His 69% route rate in the opener lined up with his rookie-year usage (he didn’t reach a 69% route rate a single time last season). That led to 130 yards in a tough matchup against Houston, where he found success lining up all over the formation: 19 snaps inline, 16 in the slot, six out wide, and one in the backfield. Kincaid’s 94 air yards led all TEs in Week 1, per Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola.

💰 Buy Dallas Goedert. His 23.7 fantasy points in Week 1 mean he now averages 15.7 fantasy PPG in games without A.J. Brown since the start of 2023 (he's scored 12+ in five of the seven), per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

😌 Colston Loveland will be fine. “He had the highest route rate of any TE in Week 1 (89%), and we now have confirmation that this Ben Johnson offense is indeed going to try and break scoring records. Keep the faith. On the flip side—the Kalif Raymond stuff is a fugazi. His 35% target share is nowhere close to sustainable on a just 58% route share.” — Fantasy Life’s Peter Overzet

Hold Isaiah Likely...for now. He posted a 29% target share, was the top TE scorer of Week 1, and had an insane 96 Utilization Score in Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life’s model. However, his 70% route rank was just 16th among TEs, and his 50% snap share was all the way down at 43rd, per Ted Chmyz. He could still be awesome, but his usage suggests he could be a little inconsistent this year. Let’s wait another week or two to decide what to make of him.

POLL 📊

What Week 1 surprise stud are you believing in the most?

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RANKINGS ✍️

Our Week 2 positional rankings are LIVE. Here are some of the favorite plays from our Rankings Specialist, Anthony…

Caleb Williams (CHI) — QB4 vs MIN:

  • “Williams exploded in Week 1, throwing for 269 yards and two TDs while adding 65 yards and two more scores on the ground. That rushing involvement gives him an enormous fantasy ceiling even if the passing numbers aren't spectacular every week. Coming home against Minnesota, Williams enters Week 2 as one of my favorite QB plays and I believe he has another big game to start the season.”

Kenneth Walker III (KC) — RB8 vs IND:

  • “Walker looked outstanding in his KC debut, and Week 1 gave us exactly what we wanted to see from his new situation: substantial rushing volume and explosive production. Indy will now have to deal with a Chiefs offense that can create favorable rushing situations simply because of the threat of Mahomes. Walker is my RB8, but his combination of volume, explosiveness and scoring opportunity gives him a legitimate path to finishing considerably higher.”

Matthew Golden (GB) — WR28 @ NYJ:

  • “Golden is one of my favorite breakout candidates after a Week 1 performance that was even more impressive beneath the surface. He turned 12 targets into six catches for 95 yards, while his snap and target involvement showed that Green Bay is prepared to give him a significant role. I've moved Golden all the way up to WR28, and another high-volume performance could establish him as a weekly fantasy starter.”

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) — TE5 vs DET:

  • “Kincaid was one of the biggest Week 1 winners at TE, catching five passes for 130 yards and showing the explosive element Buffalo has been waiting for. Now he gets a Detroit matchup that could force Josh Allen into another aggressive passing game. Kincaid has moved all the way up to TE5 on my board, as another top-5 finish is well within reach.”

For Anthony’s full Week 2 rankings, click the link below to upgrade your subscription for just $4/month. No contracts. No commitments. Money-back guarantee.

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QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read The Everything Report: 2026 Fantasy Football Week 2 from Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield and Ryan Heath, where the guys talk league-winning RBs, usage and outlooks on nearly every player, screaming buy-lows, and playcalling cheat codes. This week it’s FREE — no paywall!

📖 Read Sabotage Drop of the Week: Week 2 from Footballguys’ Sigmund Bloom. The term “sabotage drop” refers to bench-clogging players who have name brand value, but are not reliable enough to start. It’s a next-level bold move to make, and I’m here for it.

📖 Read Week 2 Fantasy football Panic Meter from CBS Sports’ Dan Schneier, where he discusses what to do with Colston Loveland, Travis Etienne, and more slow starters.

📺 Watch How We Feelin? + TNF Preview, Trade Q's from The Fantasy Footballers, where Andy, Mike, and Jason discuss player takes they feel right and wrong about so far. Plus, injury updates, tough fantasy football trade decisions, and a preview of TNF.

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Enjoy Lions @ Bills tonight. Should be a great show in the new Highmark Stadium.

- Marcus

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