Good morning.

And welcome to another NFL Sunday!

The hype of Week 1 is always fun, but that was just a warm-up. We’re into the thick of things now, where the contenders start to separate themselves from the pretenders.

Let’s get after it…

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Baker Mayfield vs. CLE: Revenge game! Baker will look to take it to his former team today, especially after costing his current team with three fumbles in Week 1. Aside from the turnovers, though, he was actually 7th in success rate and 3rd in completion percentage over expected last week, while also finishing 6th in EPA per play (on non-turnover plays), per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Brock Purdy vs. MIA: Miami's secondary is a mess, and San Francisco's implied team total (29) is the 2nd-highest in Week 2. Over the last two seasons, Purdy is averaging 23.5 fantasy PPG whenever the 49ers score at least 23 points, per Fantasy Life’s Matthew Berry.

Dak Prescott vs. WAS: Prescott topped 22 fantasy points against the Commanders in both their meetings last year, finishing as a top-10 QB on both occasions, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone. Washington also just allowed a 3-TD day to Jalen Hurts and remains a matchup to target.

C.J. Stroud vs. CIN: He was still just the QB16 last week, despite the shootout Houston had with Buffalo. And it’ll be even tougher for him to reach that ceiling this week with Nico Collins (hamstring) OUT.

Drake Maye vs. PIT: He has averaged fewer than 15 fantasy points since the 2025 postseason, per SI’s Michael Fabiano, and his top passing-game option, A.J. Brown, is out of action. Maye also faces a tough matchup against the Steelers in what is projected to be a low-scoring game, with the projected total hovering around 40 points.

Matthew Stafford vs. NYG: Stafford was ass in Week 1, and now gets a Giants D that allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per attempt and the 9th-lowest passer rating after beating Dallas on SNF, per the staff at FantasyPros.

Bryce Young @ ATL: Over the last two seasons, Young averages more than double the fantasy PPG against Atlanta than vs. all other opponents, per Fantasy Points’ Joe Dolan. He went throw-for-throw with Caleb Williams last week, finishing as the fantasy QB3, and will look to put up similar numbers today as well.

Carson Wentz @ CHI: Chicago has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs since the start of last season (20.7), per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen, and they just made Bryce Young look like a star in the opener.

Aaron Jones @ CHI: Jordan Mason (thumb) has been placed on IR, paving the way for Jones to be the bellcow today against a Chicago D that allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to RBs in Week 1, per USA Today’s Nick Brinkerhoff.

David Montgomery vs. CIN: Montgomery scored three TDs en route to a 28.9 PPR fantasy point day in Week 1. He now gets a Bengals defense that allowed over 5.6 yards per carry to Bucky Irving last week, per Roto Baller’s Joey Pollizze.

Jadarian Price @ ARI: The Seahawks will visit a Cardinals D that shocked the Chargers in Week 1, but their personnel’s not much different from the unit that gave up the 8th-most rushing yards last season, per Draft Sharks’ Ian Miller. With Sam Darnold OUT, expect Seattle to lean on their rookie RB.

J.K. Dobbins vs. JAX: The Jags allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league last season, per Ian Miller, and continued their dominance by yielding just 87 rushing yards to the Browns last Sunday.

Quinshon Judkins @ TB: He totaled just 33 rushing yards on 12 carries in Week 1. His 2.8 YPC, 25% success rate, -0.25 EPA per carry and zero explosive runs all positioned him among the least effective RBs in Week 1, per NFL.com’s Matt Okada.

Tony Pollard vs. PHI: Pollard split snaps nearly 50-50 with Tyjae Spears in Week 1 and totaled just 34 yards on eight touches in a terrible Titans offense. Pass.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt @ DAL: Bill saw a 34% touch share in Week 1 (nearly 20% higher than Rachaad White's workload), per Michael Fabiano. He’s a strong start against the Cowboys, who allowed 4.3 yards per rush and 27.3 fantasy points to Cam Skattebo and the Giants last Sunday night.

Kaelon Black vs. MIA: In Week 1, Miami allowed the 7th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest rushing success rate, and the 6th-most yards after contact per attempt to backs, per the staff at FantasyPros. If San Fran gets ahead big early on, they could turn to their rookie RB to churn the clock.

Parker Washington @ DEN: The Broncos have deployed man coverage at a top-3 rate since the start of last season (35.9%), which continued in Week 1 (33.3%). Washington boasts a team-high 2.93 YPRR against man since the start of last season (a +35% boost and a top-5 mark among all WRs), per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Chris Godwin vs. CLE: He has a prime opportunity in front of him against a Browns secondary that struggles to contain the slot, as Parker Washington caught five passes for 83 yards and one TD from the slot against them last week.

DeVonta Smith @ TEN: Smitty had a 27% target share and a 13.7 aDOT (with three deep looks) in Week 1. Meanwhile, Tennessee allowed an 85% catch rate and 16 yards per reception to Jets receivers, and they've given up the 6th-most fantasy PPG to the position since last season began, per Matthew Berry.

Alec Pierce @ KC: The Chiefs allowed the fewest passing yards in Week 1 against a Broncos team that ran the ball on just under 32% of plays—4th-fewest in the league last week, per USA Today’s Jack McKessy.

Brian Thomas Jr. @ DEN: BTJ’s been limited this week with a shoulder injury, and now will square off against CB Patrick Surtain II. Thomas struggled in Week 16 of last season against Surtain and the Broncos, finishing with just two catches for 18 yards on three targets, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. SEA: “After being out-targeted by Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and even Kendrick Bourne in Week 1, we need to see something from Harrison before we trust him in our lineups.” — Justin Boone

Quentin Johnston vs. LV: Ladd McConkey is questionable with a rib injury. Even if he does suit up, he could be limited—which means more work for QJ. Johnston has 24 catches for 341 yards and three TDs in his past five meetings against the Raiders, and he has scored a TD or gone over 100 receiving yards in four of those outings, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Jalen Coker @ ATL: I’ve already mentioned how Bryce Young carves up Atlanta. That should benefit Coker, who was the WR1 in all of fantasy last week. Plus, since Week 11 of last season, he's averaged 13.8 fantasy PPG and has quietly outscored Tetairoa McMillan in five of their last six games, per Matt Okada.

Mark Andrews vs. NO: Zay Flowers is OUT with a bad hammy, and rookie WR Ja’Kobi Lane is on IR. That’ll leave Andrews as the next man up. After Flowers missed the 2nd half of Week 1, Andrews earned a 25% target share and was the only Raven to catch more than two passes outside of Flowers himself, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Dallas Goedert @ TEN: Last year, new Titans HC Robert Saleh deployed Cover 3 at a top-5 rate (38.3%) when he was DC of the 49ers. In Week 1, that increased to 42.3% for his Titans. Since the start of last season, Goedert sees a +21.4% boost to his TPRR against Cover 3, per Ryan Heath. And as we mentioned in Thursday’s newsletter, he averages a strong 16.2 fantasy PPG in games without A.J. Brown since 2023.

Harold Fannin Jr. @ TB: I don’t love banking on any Browns, but if there’s a time for Fannin to produce, it’s this week. Tampa Bay allowed Mike Gesicki to score 18.8 PPR fantasy points last week, and they also gave up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs in 2025, per Joey Pollizze.

Mike Gesicki @ HOU: Don’t chase the points on Gesicki, who failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in all but two games last season, per USA Today’s Tom Viera.

T.J. Hockenson @ CHI: Last year, Chicago allowed the 10th-fewest yards per target and the 9th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to TEs, per the staff at FantasyPros.

Kyle Pitts vs. CAR: Two words: Cooper. Rush.

Juwan Johnson @ BAL: He led all TEs in routes in Week 1, while finishing 2nd in red-zone targets, per Joe Dolan.

Dalton Schultz vs. CIN: Cincy gives up the 2nd-most receiving YPG to underneath throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (148.8), per John Hansen, and the fewest to the deep ball (28.4), which lines up well with Schultz’ game. Look for him to be Stroud’s security blanket with Nico Collins sidelined.

2026 Record: 2-1

🥇 Seahawks (-4.0) @ Cardinals

🥈 Christian McCaffrey OVER 57.5 rushing yards vs. Dolphins

🥉 Panthers (-2.5) @ Falcons

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

📖 Read The Primer: Week 2 Edition from Derek Brown of FantasyPros, where he breaks down every match-up, complete with rankings, starts/sits, and more.

📖 Read Bold Fantasy Football Predictions for Week 2 from the staff at Yahoo, which includes takes on Mayfield’s revenge game, Wentz’s chance to start, and more.

📖 Read Fantasy Football Film Room from The Athletic’s Ben Gretch ($), where he identifies what is signal (actionable, predictive) and what is noise (fluky, non-predictive) after watching every snap of every game from the previous week.

📺 Watch this BRUTAL loss by NC State yesterday:

Good luck this week.

And remember: if you lose, it’s because of injuries. But if you win, injuries are just an excuse.

See you Tuesday.

- Marcus