Good morning.

Week 1 is always a time for overreactions. Especially when Allen Lazard and Foster Moreau finish in the top 3 at their positions.

So while you might be tempted to sell the farm for Alec Pierce or cut bait with Marvin Harrison Jr., we’re here to give you the numbers you need to make rational decisions.

Let’s take a look at some players to buy and sell heading into Week 2…

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TNF PREVIEW 📺

Mostert Ruled Out

It took just one week for the injury bug to catch up to Raheem Mostert. The speedster has been ruled out for tonight’s game, and De’Von Achane is reportedly a game-time decision. Jeff Wilson Jr. would likely be first up to replace them, with exciting rookie Jaylen Wright mixing in.

Achane reportedly looked good in yesterday’s practice, so there’s a chance he goes. But be sure to monitor the situation right up until kickoff.

Meanwhile, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has had his share of struggles against Buffalo. He’s 1-5 against them in his career, and has never finished within the top-12 in any of those matchups, per The Fantasy Footballers. You can comfortably sit him this week, despite his top-10 finish in Week 1.

On the other hand, here are Josh Allen's passing yards in his last five games against the Dolphins: 359, 320, 352, 304, 400 (per Joe Osborne of Covers). Start your Bills WRs (+Kincaid).

MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Quarterback

🚀 Jayden Daniels is a fantasy cheat code. His passing left a lot to be desired (17/24, 184 yds, 0 TDs), but he became the first QB in NFL history to rush for 80 yards and two TDs in his first game, leading him to a QB3 finish. If he can stay healthy and progress even slightly as a passer, he could explode for fantasy in his rookie year, even if he isn’t the greatest real-life QB.

✋ Hold Joe Burrow. A lot of QBs struggled in Week 1, and Burrow was no exception. Being without Tee Higgins and having limited reps with Ja’Marr Chase surely didn’t help. And while some noticed he was fidgeting with his wrist, a deeper analysis by Jeff Mueller should ease some anxiety:

💧 Drop Deshaun Watson. He looked dreadful against Dallas and now has yet another sexual assault case against him. It’s time for the Browns to move on and so should you.

👀 Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is legit. The Browns’ former QB has found a home in Tampa — since joining the Bucs, Mayfield has the 3rd most passing TDs in the NFL and leads the league in QBR since Week 14 of last season, per ClutchPoints Betting.

Running Back

🚀 Buy De’Von Achane. He’ll be tough to trade for, but given his current injury status, this may be the only time you can reasonably could try. He’s a co-starter at RB and essentially Miami’s WR3 as well:

The receiving usage was really encouraging, and could allow Achane to reach his ceiling even when Mostert’s healthy.

👀 Monitor Derrick Henry’s usage. He should see a lot of work when Baltimore’s ahead, but with the team trailing much of last week, Henry ceded more work to Justice Hill than expected. He was out-snapped by Hill 51.4% to 48.6% and out-targeted 8 to 2. Worst of all, Hill had a 69.2% red zone snap rate to Henry's 30.8% (per FanDuel’s Brandon Gdula).

📉 Sell Rhamondre Stevenson. He was utilized in a feature role, playing 80% of snaps and earning a 13% target share, while carrying the ball a career-high 25 times, per Sporting News’ Michael O’Hara. However, the Patriots don’t forecast to be ahead in many games this year like they were in Week 1. If you can get RB1 value for Stevenson, take it.

🤫 Stash Bucky Irving. We highlighted him in Tuesday’s waiver write-up, but felt it was important to add that among 43 RBs with more than 5 rushes in Week 1, Irving ranked #1 in explosive rate (56%) and #2 in yards per carry (6.9), while Rachaad White ranked #41 in YPC (2.1) and #31 in explosive rate (27%), per Warren Sharp. He could turn out to be the best back in Tampa Bay.

Wide Receiver

🚀 Brian Thomas Jr. is legit. He led all rookie WRs in yards per route run (2.61) while also notching the 2nd-highest snap rate (76.0%), highest target share (21.1%), and 2nd-highest air yards share (27.1%), per FanDuel’s Skyler Carlin. He’s looking more and more like Jacksonville’s alpha.

💰 Buy Keon Coleman. He received the 2nd-highest snap rate (72.4%), highest route rate (88.0%), highest target share (21.7%), 2nd-highest air yards share (28.9%), and 2nd-most yards per route run (2.32) in Buffalo's offense in their season opener (per NextGenStats). He’s the clear-cut WR1.

💪 Khalil Shakir is the Bills’ slot receiver. He ran 21 routes, compared to just nine for Curtis Samuel. More than 35% of Shakir’s routes were in the slot while it was only 10% for Samuel, per FantraxHQ’s Ryan Kirksey.

📉 Sell Xavier Worthy. 90% of his fantasy points came on just two plays, per Austin Ambler of LWOS. And his target competition will only increase as Hollywood Brown returns, pushing him to the 4th option behind Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Brown. Worthy will likely be boom-or-bust all year, so if you can get a decent return for him after a strong debut, do it.

👀 Monitor Broncos rookie WR Devaughn Vele. It’s only been one game, but…🤷‍♂️

Tight End

✋ Hold Mark Andrews. He was blanketed and double-covered constantly in a horrible matchup against a Steve Spangulo defense that has shut him down every single time they have played. In 5 games vs the Chiefs, Andrews has gone over 22 yards and three catches just once with zero TDs in all contests, per FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson.

Check out this great thread from The Fantasy Footballers’ Andy Holloway if you aren’t convinced you should forget about Andrews’ rough performance:

💰 Buy Dalton Kincaid. “Despite it not showing up in the stat sheet, Dalton Kincaid played a career-high snaps (86.3%) for games in which Dawson Knox was also playing. Previously, he had only played that many when Knox was out (twice last season).” — SI’s Jennifer Piacenti

💧 Drop Luke Musgrave and Add Tucker Kraft. Musgrave is no longer the Packers’ top TE, as Kraft outsnapped him 64-17 in Week 1 and ran 30 routes to Musgrave’s eight, per FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice. Neither one will be very productive with Jordan Love sidelined, but Kraft has more long-term value.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Ian Hartitz’s Week 1 RB usage table to get an idea of each team’s pecking order at the position:

📖 Read Mike Clay of ESPN’s Shadow Report for a guide on key CB/WR matchups in Week 2. One of the matchups to watch will be George Pickens vs Pat Surtain II. Pickens should be slightly downgraded given this matchup, according to Clay.

📖 Read Sal Vetri of Yahoo’s Trade Tips to Set You Up For Success in 2024. The first rule? Your reputation matters. Don’t be that guy trying to rip everybody off…

🎙️Listen to Establish the Run’s Rest of Season Top-150 Rankings: Who Should We Panic On? The guys discuss the first week of NFL action while evaluating the ETR team’s rankings.

📺 Watch this awesome overhead view of Anthony Richardson’s 60-yard TD pass:

TWEET OF THE DAY

Remember to take your Bills and Dolphins players out of the FLEX spot. It rarely makes a difference, but it shows your opponent that you mean business.

Enjoy TNF. See you Sunday.

- Marcus