Good morning.

Thursdays just hit different during football season, don’t they? With football on TV tonight, it’s like we’ve already reached the weekend. So tune out your bosses, stare at your fantasy lineups endlessly, and enjoy Patriots vs Jets.

TNF PREVIEW 📺

Patriots @ Jets

With the Jets looking a little rusty out of the gate and the Patriots being the Patriots, tonight’s matchup isn’t likely to put up fireworks. But could this finally be the Garrett Wilson breakout game?

The Patriots have played man coverage on 39.2% of passing plays (4th in the league) and Wilson has averaged 1.98 yards per route against man coverage for his career as opposed to 1.68 YRR vs zone (per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis). While New England’s secondary is strong, they did give up a combined 22 catches for 246 yards to DK Metcalf and JSN last week. And Wilson’s one of only two WRs in the league with a 29+% target share and 44+% air yard share (per @FAmmiranteTFJ). He’s due.

On the flipside, avoid most Patriots, as their offense has had only 1.5% of their plays go for 20+ yards, the lowest rate in the NFL through two weeks (per Hribar). You can still start workhorse Rhamondre Stevenson though, and Hunter Henry’s an intriguing stream at the TE position after having his first 100+ yard game since 2019 last week.

SPONSOR

MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Quarterback

🚀 Trade for Patrick Mahomes. It might be tough to do, but in his last nine games, he’s scored more than 20 fantasy points just once. And he's been held under 18 points in 12 of his last 18 games, during which time he's scored fewer than 16 points eight times, per SI’s Michael Fabiano. If someone in your league has given up hope, this might be your only chance to swoop in. With Isiah Pacheco now on IR, the Chiefs could be forced to throw the ball a lot more than they have recently.

✋ Hold Jared Goff. He has zero TDs on a league-leading 18 red zone attempts through Week 2, per NBC’s Denny Carter. He has to hit on some of these eventually.

💧 Drop Caleb Williams (in 10 or 12-team re-draft leagues). Through two weeks, he sits as the QB31 with a 7.3 PPG average. He has yet to record a single TD while completing just 56% of his passes and averaging 134 passing yards per game. While he’s sure to improve, there are plenty of other available QBs — like Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Derek Carr — who are better options.

Running Back

👀 Zack Moss is the clear RB1 in Cincinnati. I was Team Chase Brown all offseason, but so far this looks like Moss’ backfield. He has a 74% snap share, 65% rush attempt share, and 57% route participation rate over the first two games, per FantasyLife’s Dwain McFarland. He doesn’t have many fantasy points show for it, but that should change with matchups against Washington and Carolina on the horizon.

😓 The struggle is real for Kyren Williams. He has the most carries without a 10+ yard run (30) and is one of only five RBs to rank in the bottom-10 in percentage of carries that were explosive runs (10+ yards) or stuffed (tackled for a loss or no gain), per Ian Hartitz. He could be considered a sell candidate, but with all the injuries to Rams WRs, the offense should have no choice but to go through him. He’s a hold for now.

📉 Sell Rachaad White. He’s 3rd on the Bucs in rushing yards behind rookie Bucky Irving and Baker Mayfield. Yes, the QB. He’ll still get the receiving work out of the backfield, but that could dwindle too with Irving cutting into his work much more than anyone else did last season.

💧 Drop Trey Benson. The rookie had a lot of hype this offseason as James Conner’s handcuff, but that role seems cloudier than expected. He’s barely out-snapped Emari Demarcado (30 to 20) and has 14 rushes for just 23 yards thus far, while Demercado has 72 total yards on only four touches, per Liam Hanley of Clutch Points.

Wide Receiver

🚀 Trade for George Pickens. He caught just two passes for 29 yards in Week 2… so why should you buy in?

He’s ranked top-6 in Fantasy Points’ A.S.S. (Average Separation Score) metric in both Week 1 and Week 2, despite being shadowed by two of the league’s best corners in A.J. Terrell and Pat Surtain II. He’s also been the definition of “sheeeeesh” after having a 41-yard catch overturned, and another 36-yard catch negated due to OPI in Week 1. He then followed that up in Week 2 with a 51-yard catch nullified by holding, a 6-yard TD catch nullified by a Van Jefferson OPI, and drew a 39-yard DPI penalty against Surtain (per Scott Barrett).

The breakout year is bubbling just under the surface.

✋ Hold Chris Olave. The Saints offense looks legit, but Olave’s been the only one not to benefit from it yet. He ranks 3rd in A.S.S., yet is 57th in fantasy points. Positive regression should be coming soon.

💰 Buy Tank Dell:

📉 Sell Calvin Ridley. Per Michael Fabiano:

“Ridley had a big fantasy day on Sunday, finishing as the WR7 with 25 PPR points. No player has seen more air yards than Calvin Ridley through the season's first two games (300).

Here's the problem: Will Levis.

Levis's catchable pass rate this season is just 66.7%, ranking 21st among signal-callers. His passer rating for the season ranks 29th.

The touchdown pass that Ridley caught on Sunday had just a 16.5% completion probability, per NextGen stats. Ridley is an excellent receiver, but he can't be a superhero every week.”

Tight End

💰 Buy high on Brock Bowers. The rookie leads all TEs in receiving yards, while being the only one at the position to have double-digit fantasy points in both weeks. He’s also 3rd in TE target share (per J.J. Zachariason) and 2nd at the position in first-read target share (per Jake Tribbey). You wouldn’t be crazy to rank him over Travis Kelce rest of season.

📉 Sell Kyle Pitts. His first-read target share is at just 6%, down from 19% under Arthur Smith (per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett). We have to consider the possibility that this is actually a Pitts problem and not a coaching problem.

💩 Dalton Kincaid has been a huge disappointment. He has -3 air yards on the season (yes, you read that right) and was out-snapped by Dawson Knox (53% vs 42%) in Week 2, per FantasyPros. The panic meter is getting high.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Scott Barrett’s Everything Report for Week 3. Barrett dives into the metrics behind buy-low and sell-high candidates, while filling you in on everything else you need to know for fantasy football.

📖 Read Dwain McFarland’s Week 3 Utilization Report to see which players are due more or less according to their usage.

📖 Read Sigmund Bloom’s What You Need to Know from Week 2, where he offers up important takeaways from all of last week’s matchups in the form of quick bullet points.

🎙️Listen to J.J. Zachariason’s 10 Trends for Week 3, where he talks about the Vegas offense, Chris Godwin’s hot start, and Sam LaPorta’s early struggles.

📺 Watch the Manningcast (Peyton, Eli & Matt Ryan) react to the Falcons’ game-winning drive Monday night:

TWEET OF THE DAY

Enjoy TNF.

And remember: losing sleep is tomorrow’s problem. So enjoy yourself tonight… football season doesn’t last forever.

- Marcus