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Good morning.
And Welcome to October! …How did September go?
I feel your pain.
But the good news is there’s still time to turn it around! Today we’re going over buys, sells, and holds to help you maximize your team’s potential.
Let’s get after it…
Today's newsletter highlights:
Market Trends 📈
Week 4 Rankings 📊
Panic Meter 😰
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MARKET TRENDS 🧐
Running Back
❤️ // NFL.com
💰 Buy Jeremiah Love. In Week 3, he commanded 22.8 expected fantasy points (XFP), the 4th-most among all RBs, while his 76.3% backfield XFP share put him at RB10 (between Chase Brown and Christian McCaffrey), per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett. Tyler Allgeier still controls much of the two-minute and 3rd down work, but Love has legitimate top-5 upside if he can earn some of those passing down snaps.
📉 Sell Omarion Hampton. His teammates Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal have had their usage increase, leading to Hampton only running a route on 16% of the dropbacks in Week 3, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone. This is now a committee backfield in a struggling offense that's about to face a murderers' row of matchups the next two months—SEA, DEN, KC, LAR, HOU, BAL.
💰 Buy Chase Brown. He’s handled 78% of Cincy’s rush attempts (the 4th-highest rate in the NFL). His 71% snap share also ranks 7th among RBs, while logging 95% of the two-minute drill snaps, per Fantasy Life’s Adam Pfeifer. Unfortunately for Brown, the Bengals are averaging just 2.7 red zone scoring trips per game so far this season, good for 24th in the league. Once the explosive TDs come down and the Bengals sustain longer drives that get to the goal line, Brown will begin to benefit.
📉 Sell low on Quinshon Judkins. He's averaged only 3.0 yards per rush this season and has yet to break a run longer than 11 yards. He's still dominating the rushing work (71% of team attempts) with 100% of the attempts inside the five-yard line, per Fantasy Life’s Joe Metz, but they simply haven't amounted to anything of value. It’s time to give up.
✋ Hold Ashton Jeanty. He hasn’t even eclipsed 13 fantasy points in his last two games, but his usage is elite, ranking 2nd in expected fantasy points per game (23.4) behind only Jahmyr Gibbs, per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen. Jeanty currently ranks 9th-worst among 42 qualifying RBs in YPC (3.27) as he works his way back to 100% from his preseason ankle injury. If that improves, the fantasy points will come in this productive scheme.
📉 Sell Ollie Gordon II. If you got him off waivers and don’t really need him, send him to a team desparate for a RB before he plays Minnesota this weekend, as the Vikings have surrendered the 4th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs and the 6th-fewest yards per rush attempt, per RotoBaller’s Jorden Hill. If De’Von Achane couldn’t get it going for the Dolphins, I’d be skeptical that Gordon will (whilst splitting with Jaylen Wright).
🤫 Stash Zach Charbonnet. If your league doesn’t have an IR slot, or for whatever reason he’s available, grab him. HC Mike Macdonald said his practice window could open as soon as today, which would initiate his 21-day window to be activated off the PUP list.
Wide Receiver
Zay Flowers // Getty Images
💰 Buy Zay Flowers. He’s the WR17, despite only running 25 total routes this season. His current pace of 9.36 yards per route run is absolutely insane. How insane is it? Well, if he ran as many routes as Chris Olave, he'd already have over 1,100 yards, per Fantasy Points Data. That exact pace obviously isn’t sustainable, but it shows just how productive Flowers can be if he stays healthy.
📉 Sell Emeka Egbuka. His stat lines haven't been terrible, but we're not seeing him command the kind of volume you would hope for a 2nd-year player on the verge of a breakout. He’s scored 12+ PPR fantasy points in just one of his last 12 games, per RotoWire’s Ian Hartitz, and it’ll be tough for him to reach that threshold any time soon with a UDFA at QB.
💰 Buy D.J. Moore. In his two healthy games with a 70%+ route share, Moore leads the Bills in targets (31% share), 1st-reads (33% share), and air yards (48% share), per John Hansen. The top target in a Josh Allen-led offense will have a huge ceiling week in and week out.
📉 Sell Davante Adams. “Puka Nacua hasn't played in two weeks but isn't going to miss the rest of the year, and Adams hasn't played a full season since 2023. It's far more likely that Adams reverts back to a secondary TD scoring role when Nacua returns. That profile is still valuable, but if you can get a true WR1 return for Adams, it's worth exploring.” — USA Today’s Everett Cook
🤫 Stash Konata Mumpfield:
QB / TE
❤️ // FOX Sports
💰 Buy Jordan Love. His schedule is shaping up nicely—in Week 4, Love will face the Bucs, who have given up over 26 PPG through three weeks, per Jorden Hill. He’ll then get the Bears (15th-most fantasy PPG allowed to QBs, per FF Today), Cowboys (3rd-most), and Lions (most).
📉 Sell low on Drake Maye. Here’s your weekly dose of brutal Drake Maye stats:
33 QBs have scored more total fantasy points than Maye this season, per Ian Hartitz (there are only 32 teams for those counting at home).
Maye has nine fumbles and 10 INTs since the start of last postseason. He’s the 1st player with 9+ fumbles and 10+ INT in a 7-game span since Jameis Winston in 2019 (during his 30-TD, 30-INT season), per CBS Sports’ Doug Clawson.
Maye currently ranks 25th in passing yards, 25th in completion %, 27th in passing 1st downs, 34th in passing TDs, 39th in passer rating, has thrown the most INTs in the NFL (6) and has the 3rd most sacks (9), per @SleeperNFL.
Maye is currently on pace for 3,315 passing yards, six passing TDs, and 34 INTs, per BDGE’s Nick Ercolano.
Something ain’t right. Get what you can and move on.
🚀 Brock Bowers to the MOON! Coming off a PCL injury, he posted the 5th best target-earning performance of any singular game by a TE since 2023 with a 39.4% target share, per Fantasy Points Data (via Dataroma). He’s truly the team’s WR1:
💰 Buy Tucker Kraft. No TE has a bigger differential between their XFP and actual output than Kraft over the last two weeks (-3.2 fantasy PPG, per Scott Barrett) because he’s dropped three passes. Since Green Bay has the 3rd-most pass-heavy attack in football (+8% pass rate over expected), the big spiked scoring weeks should be coming.
✋ Hold Travis Kelce. It’s tempting to sell a 37-year-old TE off to a hot start, but Kelce’s seen a snap rate of 70% or more in each of the Chiefs’ first three games and has found the end zone in back-to-back contests. He leads the team in target share at 20%, per FantasyPros’ Jim Moorman, and is clearly Patrick Mahomes’ top target.
POLL 📊
Which early season bust is most likely to turn it around?
RANKINGS ✍️
Our Week 4 positional rankings are LIVE. Here are some of the favorite plays from our Rankings Specialist, Anthony…
Jared Goff (DET) — QB6 vs. CAR:
“Goff is set up for a big Week 4 against a depleted Carolina secondary. With the Panthers’ top two CBs ruled out, Detroit should have a major advantage through the air, giving Goff and his talented group of weapons plenty of opportunities to attack mismatches. Coming in as our QB6, Goff carries legitimate multi-TD upside and has a strong chance to finish as one of the week’s top fantasy QBs.”
Jaylen Warren (PIT) — RB12 @ CLE:
“Warren enters Week 4 with a major opportunity in Pittsburgh’s backfield. With Rico Dowdle ruled out, Warren is positioned to handle another significant workload after taking advantage of an expanded role against Cincinnati last week. His involvement as both a runner and receiver gives him multiple ways to produce fantasy points, and another bell-cow workload could allow Warren to outperform his RB12 ranking.”
Michael Wilson (ARI) — WR18 @ NYG:
“Wilson is coming off a massive 17-target performance in Week 3, hauling in 11 passes for 89 yards and a TD. More importantly, his role looks sustainable—he has run a route on 97% of Arizona’s dropbacks and owns a 26% target share through three weeks. The Giants have allowed 103 receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s, making Wilson a strong candidate to outperform his WR18 ranking and deliver another big week.”
Juwan Johnson (NO) — TE6 vs. ATL:
“Johnson has emerged as one of the most reliable pieces of the Saints’ passing attack and enters Week 4 with another opportunity to produce TE1 numbers. His consistent involvement underneath and in the middle of the field gives him a strong target floor, while his size makes him a dangerous option near the goal line. Ranked as our TE6, Johnson has a legitimate opportunity to challenge the elite tier at the position with a TD this week.”
For Anthony’s full Week 4 rankings, click the link below to upgrade your subscription for just $4/month. No contracts. No commitments. Money-back guarantee.
Grab yours now!👇
QUICK SLANTS 👀
📖 Read Adam Koffler of USA Today’s Week 4 Panic Meter for insight on whether you should hold onto disappointing players, or give up.
📖 Read Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports’ 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 3 for insight on Brock Bowers’ return, the Chargers’ backfield, Zay Flowers’ efficiency, and more.
📖 Read Hayden Winks of Yahoo's RB Blueprint for Week 4, where he shares charts, stats, and other insights on his top-40 RBs for this week.
📺 Watch Mike Tomlin’s Minecraft City Premier, not because it’ll help your fantasy football team, but because it’s hilarious and oddly impressive:
TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️
Enjoy Steelers @ Browns tonight.
See you Sunday morning.
- Marcus
