Good morning.

The NFL is the best reality TV on the planet…

The script writers are on one this year.

So before we start another Sunday of craziness, we’ll identify the matchups to exploit and the ones to avoid.

Let’s get after it…

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Tyler Shough vs. ATL: Shough is one of only two QBs to score 20+ fantasy points in every game so far this season. New Orleans ranks 4th in pass rate over expectation, and Atlanta ranks 29th in pass defense, per Fantasy Life’s Matthew Berry.

Bryce Young vs. DET: Young leads the NFL with 313 passing yards per game and is tied for 4th in passing TDs per game at 2.33. Carolina ranks 2nd in dropback rate over expected at 10%, while the Lions have given up the 4th-largest fantasy boost to opposing QBs at +3.6 fantasy PPG, per Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland.

Dak Prescott @ HOU: The Cowboys lead the NFL in pass rate over expected (+8.9%), while the Texans rank as a top-10 pass funnel by PROE allowed (+3.3%). Houston has deployed single-high looks at a top-5 rate (57.7%), and over his last six single-high-heavy matchups (games he faced it at a 50%+ rate), Prescott averages 26.6 fantasy PPG, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Drake Maye @ BUF: Buffalo uses Cover 3 (33.1%) and Cover 4 (25%) at a 58.3% clip, and Maye averages a terrible 5.82 yards per attempt with a horrible 50.9 passer rating on 42 dropbacks against those coverages this season, per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen. Now is not the time to see if Maye can bounce back.

Jalen Hurts vs. LAR: The Eagles rank 22nd in EPA per play on offense annd 25th in passing efficiency, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak. It’ll be tough to see any improvement on that with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert out.

Justin Herbert @ SEA: Herbert has three TDs and four INTs in three games while averaging just 229 passing yards per game. Don’t expect much to improve against a Seahawks defense that ranks 7th in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Marcus Mariota vs. IND: Among QBs who have played at least eight games since the start of last season, Mariota ranks 12th in fantasy points per dropback. This week, he’ll face a Colts team that is allowing 21.9 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs while ranking 30th in pass defense, per Matthew Berry.

Sam Darnold vs. LAC: The Chargers rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to the QB position this season, per The Fantasy Footballers’ Andy Holloway, including 20.2 points to Kirk Cousins in Week 2.

Bhayshul Tuten @ CIN: Tuten has been very quietly one of the most efficient RBs in the NFL, ranking top-10 in YPC, success rate, and explosive run rate, per Fantasy Points’ Joe Dolan, and the Bengals just got jocked on by Jaylen Warren last week.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. IND: Rachaad White is out and the washed up Austin Ekeler only signed with the team this week. Meanwhile, Indy gives up the 5th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.59), the 6th-most rushing YPG (114.0), and the 3rd-most receiving YPG (43.7) to RBs, per John Hansen.

Aaron Jones Sr. vs. MIA: “Jones, who turns 32 in December, can't hold up to massive workloads forever, but he should do well against a Miami team that's allowed the most fantasy points to RBs, including top-5 finishes in each of the first three weeks.” — Yahoo’s Justin Boone

Omarion Hampton @ SEA: Hampton is averaging 10.5 fantasy PPG and has been relegated to an early-down role, handling only a 25% route participation rate. Meanwhile, Seattle is the 4th-hardest matchup for RBs in 2026 with a -3.2 fantasy boost, per Dwain McFarland. You may not have any other options, but if you’re one of the rare people with RB depth, sit him.

All Packers RBs @ TB: The Packers do not have a single game from a RB this year that ranks even within the top 100 individual weeks in expected fantasy points, per Joe Dolan. Don’t even bother trying to guess which of the three could fall into the end zone today.

All Dolphins RBs @ MIN: Whether you’re Team Ollie Gordon or Team Jaylen Wright, just know that so far this season, no RB has rushed for more than 47 yards against the Vikings, per Matthew Berry.

Braelon Allen @ CHI: With Breece Hall out, Allen figures to step up as the primary back for the Jets. He’s worth a start against a Bears’ run defense ranks dead last in yards before contact allowed, per The Fantasy Footballers’ Mike Wright.

Emanuel Wilson vs. LAC: With Jadarian Price on IR, Wilson and George Holani will carry the load while the team waits for Zach Charbonnet to return. Between Wilson and Holani, most seem to be leaning Wilson…

Michael Wilson @ NYG: Wilson currently leads the Cardinals in 1st-read target share (35.1%, 7th-highest among all players). That bodes well for him against the Giants, who rank as a top-10 pass funnel by PROE allowed (+2.1%), or top-5 if you exclude last week’s bad-weather game (+7.2%). Likewise, the Cardinals’ offense ranks top-12 in PROE (+2.9%), per Ryan Heath.

Jordan Addison vs. MIA: Addison stepped up when Justin Jefferson got hurt against the Buccaneers, securing five catches for 90 yards and a TD on nine targets. He should get plenty of opportunities against the Dolphins with JJettas officially ruled out.

Josh Downs @ WAS: “[The Commanders] currently rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to WRs. Downs, who has been rocking a 30%+ target share since Alec Pierce went on IR, should be in a prime spot to take advantage of this matchup.” — Andy Holloway

Chris Godwin Jr. vs. GB: “Godwin is 4th out of four qualified Bucs wideouts in yards per route run (1.1). He’s also last by a wide margin in targets per route at .11. Since the start of 2025, Godwin is 51st in YPRR and 72nd in targets per route run among all WRs.” — Kyle Dvorchak

Ladd McConkey @ SEA: He’s listed as Questionable, but even if he plays, it’s best to fade him. Last week, McConkey had a 14.7% target share (3rd on the team) with a 19% 1st-read share (3rd on the team), per the staff at FantasyPros. He could just be a decoy once again against a stout Seattle defense.

Jaylen Waddle @ SF: He’s been super inconsistent so far, and now faces a Niners defense that's held all but one wideout to 14.7 fantasy points or fewer after the first three weeks, per SI’s Michael Fabiano.

Jameson Williams @ CAR: The secondary for the Panthers is a mess, with starting CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps) and Mike Jackson (groin) being placed on IR. Williams is due for a big game after scoring 8.9 PPR points or less in all three games this year, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Kalif Raymond vs. NYJ: Raymond is the WR14 in fantasy PPG. This week, he faces a Jets’ secondary that has the 5th-highest two-high rate in the NFL (65.4%). Against two-high, Raymond leads the Bears with a 22% target-per-route run rate with 2.00 yards per route run, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

Travis Kelce @ LV: “Entering Week 4, he’s the TE2 overall and is producing like prime Kelce after a couple years of apparent decline. He’s 4th among TEs in yards per route run (min. 30 routes) and 1st in passer rating when targeted. And this Sunday, he takes on the Raiders, who’ve allowed the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to the position.” — NFL.com’s Matt Okada

Juwan Johnson vs. ATL: Johnson is the TE4 on the season and should stay hot against a Falcons D that ranks 26th in fantasy points allowed to the TE position, per The Fantasy Footballers’ Jason Moore.

Kenyon Sadiq @ CHI: The Bears have surrendered the 10th-most yards per target to TEs while only facing Darren Waller in a part-time role in Week 1, an underutilized TJ Hockenson, and a part-time Zach Ertz in Week 3. Last week, Sadiq had a 56.8% route share, a 21.6% target share, 105 receiving yards (4.20 YPRR), zero red zone targets, two deep targets, and a 19.2% first-read share (good for TE4 on the week), per Derek Brown.

Dalton Schultz vs. DAL: “With Nico Collins expected to return this week, the volume scam for Schultz is over. The Cowboys have also held every TE other than Isaiah Likely under 25 yards.” — Justin Boone

Mark Andrews vs. TEN: Andrews has been largely disappointing this season, and the Titans have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to TEs, per Matt Okada.

Kyle Pitts @ NO: He's scored under eight fantasy points in nine of his 13 games with Michael Penix Jr. at QB and ranks as the TE37 in utilization score this season, per Matthew Berry.

Darren Waller vs. DET:

Brenton Strange @ CIN: If you’re desparate, you can stream Strange against a Bengals D that has allowed the most points to the position since the start of last season, per Matt Okada.

2026 Record: 5-3

🥇 Rams (-3.0) @ Eagles

🥈 Vikings (-10.5) vs. Dolphins

🥉 Texans (-3.0) vs. Cowboys

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

📖 Read The Primer: Week 4 Edition from FantasyPros’ Derek Brown for starts, sits, rankings, and other insights from every game.

📖 Read Hayden Winks of Yahoo’s WR Blueprint for Week 4. We shouted out his RB Blueprint on Thursday, so be sure to checkout the WR version of that same weekly article. In it, Winks shares charts, stats, and other notes on his top-50 players at the position for this week.

📖 Read Fantasy football Last-Minute Pickups for Week 4 from ESPN’s Matt Bowen for players you should stash on your bench if you’re able to move some guys ruled out to an IR slot.

📺 Watch Go TRADE For These Players! 16 Trade Targets for Week 4 from CBS Sports’ Fantasy Football Today, where the guys share the best fantasy football buy-low and sell-high trade candidates heading into Week 4:

Good luck today.✊

See you Tuesday morning.

- Marcus