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Good morning.

It’s hard to believe, but we’re somehow already entering Week 4 — nearly a month into the season.

By now, we typically have some idea of who will be this season’s studs and duds. But this has been an odd year… Jauan Jennings is the WR2, the top 5 TEs include Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, and Isaiah Likely, and Brandon Aubrey is essentially the fantasy MVP:

But we have hope that this craziness will end soon. Trends typically regress to the mean, and the real stars show their true colors more and more as the season goes on.

So in today’s newsletter, we’ll look at the underlying metrics to highlight some buys, sells, and other trends happening behind the scenes in this upside-down world we’re in.

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Quarterback

🤯 Jayden Daniels is the truth:

The rookie is the QB2 so far and has looked elite both through the air and on the ground.

✋ Hold Anthony Richardson. He has a completion percentage of just 49% and is dead last in catchable throws per game (15.7). He’s also tied with Will Levis for the league lead in INTs + fumbles (8) and is not running as much as expected, with only six scrambles on the year (18 carries total).

So why isn’t he a sell? 40% of his carries have gone for 10+ yards and five of his six scrambles went for either 10+ yards or a TD, per SB Nation’s Noah Compton. His mediocre 7.1% scramble rate is bound to increase as the season progresses, and when that happens, he could become the fantasy stud we thought we’d be.

📉 Sell Patrick Mahomes. I can’t believe I just said that. But Mahomes has not finished inside the top-8 at the position since Week 7 of last year (and he only did that twice that season), per The Fantasy Footballers’ Andy Holloway. He’s also second-to-last among starting QBs in his rate of throwing it 20+ air yards, and is dead last when looking at 15+ air yard throws, per J.J. Zachariason. His name value is much greater than his actual production.

Running Back

📉 Sell Kyren Williams (high). He’s a workhorse for the Rams, so don’t sell him for just anything. But Kyren’s long-term outlook is concerning. He’s in the bottom 10 in rushing yards above expectation per attempt (-0.9) this season, per FantasyPros, and LA’s o-line is severely banged up. Your best move might be to cash out on his three-TD performance before it’s too late.

💰 Buy J.K. Dobbins. While his Week 3 showing didn’t amount to as many fantasy points as his previous two games, he saw an 83% RB rush share when his previous season high was just 47.6%. Gus Edwards, meanwhile, saw a season low 17% share, resulting in only 3 rush attempts. It’s Dobbins’ backfield now.

✋ Hold James Cook. He ranks 6th among RBs in total PPR points and points per game, but he sits just 21st in expected points per game. He also ranks just 19th at the position in carries and tied for 22nd in targets, per DraftSharks’ Matt Schauf. While this could point towards regression, he’s the lead back on an explosive offense and is finally scoring rushing TDs. Those are good players to have.

🚑️ Monitor Christian McCaffrey’s injury updates. He recently went to Germany to see a specialist for his Achilles tendonitis, and many experts — like Jeff Mueller — suspect he’s getting a PRP injection to help his injury heal. The expectation is that he’ll return in Week 10 following the team’s Week 9 bye, but keep tabs on any future updates if you have CMC or Jordan Mason on your roster.

Wide Receiver

💰 Buy Jayden Reed. His route participation is up from 61% last year to 75% this year, per CBSSports’ Jacob Gibbs. And he’s also currently on pace for nearly 30 rushing attempts, operating in a Deebo-esque role for the Pack. He was the WR1 in Week 1 with Jordan Love under center and has managed to stay relevant with Malik Willis thanks to these manufactured touches. With Love due back from his injury soon, Reed is primed to blow up.

💰 Buy Khalil Shakir:

🚀 Diontae Johnson loves him some Andy Dalton. He went OFF in Week 3, but could have been even better:

It won’t be this good every week, but you can finally start him confidently.

✋ Hold Brandon Aiyuk. Among 106 qualified WRs, he’s 3rd in separation score and 1st in route win rate, per Fantasy Points. While Jauan Jennings stole the show last week, Aiyuk quietly had a season-high 10 targets and is the best bet to be the Niners’ WR1 going forward.

📉 Sell Michael Pittman Jr.:

Tight End

📉 Sell Dallas Goedert. He’s currently the TE1 thanks to his Week 3 performance, but A.J. Brown was out and DeVonta Smith and Britain Covey left early with injuries. Goedert was literally all that was left in Philly’s passing game.

😓 The struggle is real for Mark Andrews managers. “Andrews played just 33% of snaps on Sunday, running four routes in the process. This level of usage is abysmal and is not within the realm of a starting TE in fantasy. Andrews has been trending in the wrong direction in just about every usage and production metric this year. The panic button has been smashed, and it's time to look for another option.” — Sporting News’ Michael O’Hara. If you can get somewhat of a decent return for him, take it. If not, you might have to hold and hope for the best…

🤫 Stash Erick All in deeper leagues / TE Premium:

💩 The TE landscape is a total crapshoot, to be honest. It’ll be hard to buy or sell anyone given how brutal and inconsistent everyone at the position has been.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Denny Carter of NBCSports’ Week 4 Regression Files for an idea of who’s due for a bounceback, and who’s bound to fall on their face.

📖 Read Is This Real? Week 4 from FootballGuys’ Jordan McNamara, where he looks at surprising Week 3 outcomes to see if they’ll continue.

📖 Read Ian Hartitz of FantasyLife’s Week 4 Fantasy Football Storylines. Hartitz goes through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, his personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

🎙️Listen to School of Scott | The Week 4 Everything Report from Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett for a look at all the underlying metrics you need to know ahead of this weekend, along with a revisiting of Barrett’s “Exodia” players from this preseason.

📺 Watch Julian Edelman break down NFL playcalling. It really makes me feel like a scrub for yelling at these guys through the TV when I clearly have no idea what’s going on.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Enjoy Cowboys vs Giants tonight.

See you Sunday.

- Marcus