šŸˆ Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Week 4 Trends

Players to buy, sell, and hold ahead of Week 4.

Good morning.

We’ve had our first QB benching of the season! Rookie Jaxson Dart is the new signal caller for the New York Giants, replacing Mr. Unlimited himself, Russell Wilson.

But who didn’t see this coming? Brian Daboll’s smiled like a shy schoolgirl every time he’s talked about Dart since the preseason.

This sudden change is just the latest reminder of how fast the NFL landscape shifts—and in fantasy, it’s our job to adjust just as quickly. So lets dive into some Week 4 trends…

Today's newsletter highlights:

  • Buying Benson šŸ’°

  • Bad News for BTJ šŸ“‰

  • Dart SZN šŸŽÆ

  • More buys, sells, holds, and other trends 🧐

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

Trey Benson // Brad Rempel, Imagn Images

šŸ’° Buy Trey Benson. If you couldn’t scoop him up on waivers, try to buy low before he proves what he can do as the starter. He's running efficiently so far this season (5.95 yards per carry, 9.5% explosive rate, 0.29 missed tackles forced per attempt in 2025), is attached to an above average offense (13th in EPA/play), and should have an elite role (75% of carries, 83% routes w/ Conner out last week), per Dataroma. He could be a low-end RB1.

šŸ“‰ Sell D’Andre Swift. He’s been a serviceable RB2, but he’s severely underperforming. The Bears rank 1st in the % of RB runs that gain at least one yard before initial contact, yet they rank 27th in yards per RB rush (3.5), according to CBS Sports’ Jacob Gibbs. Swift is not taking advantage of what Ben Johnson’s scheme is giving him—per Next Gen Stats, he’s one of just four backs to spend 3+ seconds behind the line of scrimmage per rush.

šŸ’° Buy Jaylen Warren. His 78% snap rate, 18 carries, and 24 total opportunities in Week 3 were all career highs, while his 60% route rate was his 5th-highest mark, per Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola. Warren’s usage has climbed each of the past two weeks, and he’s even receiving the majority of the goal-line work as well.

šŸ“‰ Sell Alvin Kamara. He wasn’t below a 12% target share in any game last year, but he’s now failed to reach a 5% target share in two of the Saints’ three games this season, which has happened only once previously for him from 2021 through 2024, per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen.

āœ‹ Hold R.J. Harvey. While Denver’s run game ranks 3rd in explosive run rate, 2nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 2nd in yards per carry per attempt, they’re only 22nd in yards after contact per attempt (per John Hansen), which is where the explosive Harvey can come in. Their o-line is elite and J.K. Dobbins has been great (+3.8 fantasy points above expectation), but he lacks true home run hitting ability. And as we saw last year, we can probably expect his production to fade, whether through injury or just general wear and tear. There’s still plenty of season left, so don’t count the rookie out just yet.

šŸ“ˆ Stock up: TreVeyon Henderson. He’s been disappointing to say the least, but after Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson combined for three fumbles, Henderson led the backfield during drills yesterday. He didn’t have a fumble in his entire college career (667 career touches), so this could be the time the Pats finally start relying on him.

Wide Receiver

JSN // Paul Sancya, AP Photo

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