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Good morning.

And welcome to Week 5! The Browns, Raiders, and Giants are all 3-1, while the Eagles, Packers, and Chargers might as well write their seasons off already.

Just like we all thought, right?

The NFL is impossible to predict, but today, we’ll try to do just that. Once again, we’re diving deep into the numbers and looking ahead at schedules to highlight some buy lows and sell highs.

Let’s get after it…

Today's newsletter highlights:

  • Market Trends šŸ“ˆ

  • Week 5 Rankings šŸ“Š

  • Metz’ R.O.S. Rankings āœļø

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Yer darn Tuten // NFL.com

Running Back

šŸ’° Buy high on Bhayshul Tuten. ā€œHe’s the RB16 on the year, with double-digit fantasy points in three straight games. His role continues to grow after season-highs in snaps (59%), touches (19) and scrimmage yards (91) in Week 4. Those numbers could have been even better if his two TDs in the game actually counted. Tuten scored from 44 yards and three yards, but both were called back due to holding penalties.ā€ — Yahoo’s Justin Boone

šŸ“‰ Sell Quinshon Judkins. Through four weeks, Judkins is averaging just three yards per carry and has just one finish as a top-24 fantasy RB, per NBC Sports’ Alfredo Brown. To get that finish, he needed to have the 2nd-best fantasy performance of his career and the highest receiving numbers of his career. ā€œJunkinsā€ is nothing more than a TD-dependent RB2.

šŸ’° Buy low on Chase Brown. He’s currently top-10 in snap share, opportunity share, routes run, route participation, and designed RB targets. Unfortunately, three of Brown’s first four opponents rank in the bottom-8 in fantasy points allowed to RBs. This week he gets the Dolphins, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to the position this season, per Brown.

šŸ“‰ Sell Jeremiah Love. We had him as a buy last week, but that was before he got hurt and had an existential crisis. The rookie suffered what appears to be a second ankle injury (to the other ankle), and saw his usage dip back down to just 46% of the snaps, 15 touches, and 55 total yards. He was also pretty discouraged in the locker room afterwards, calling this the ā€œlongest yearā€ of his life, and admitting he told the coaches to play the team’s other backs because they’re in ā€œbetter shape.ā€

Wide Receiver

Chop Wood. Carry Water. // Morgan Tencza, Imagn Images

šŸ’° Buy Parker Washington. You’ll still have to pay up for him, despite a 1.5-point showing in Week 4, but he’s worth it. Through the first three weeks of the season, Washington was the fantasy WR10, averaging nearly eight targets and 14 fantasy points per game. This may be your only chance to go get him, because this weekend he’ll be taking on an Eagles secondary that ranks 2nd in PPR points allowed to receivers aligned from the slot this season, per RotoWire’s Ian Hartitz.

šŸ“‰ Sell high on Tetairoa McMillan. He went OFF on SNF, securing 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two TDs, en route to being Week 4's WR1. But let’s not forget that was without Jalen Coker (quad injury) and against the worst passing defense in the league. Through the first two weeks of the season, Coker (who should be returning soon) was the WR6 in fantasy football, and T-Mac was WR22. Plus, between Weeks 7 and 17, the Panthers will face just two defenses that are currently top-half matchups for fantasy receivers, per RotoBaller’s Jorden Hill.

šŸ’° Buy Carnell Tate. The rookie’s 73.3% air yards share on Sunday was the highest by any player in a game this season, and his season-long mark of 49.8% ranks 3rd in the NFL, per @NFLFantasy. He’s also due for some TD regression, as he currently leads all players in targets without a receiving TD (32), per Ian Hartitz. I understand the Titans are allergic to the end zone, but he’s bound to find his way in there at some point, no?

šŸ“‰ Sell high on Deebo Samuel. ā€œThree TDs have been a big part of his success so far, including an 80-yard hook-and-ladder that he took to the house … Injuries have also paved the way for Samuel, but Christian Kirk could be activated from IR soon and rookie De'Zhaun Stribling is expected back down the stretch.ā€ — Justin Boone

šŸ’° Been saying this for a couple weeks now, but still… Buy low on George Pickens. Pickens’ 20% target share in 2026 is nearly identical to his 21% target share in 2025, per Alfredo Brown. In fact, nearly everything is statistically the same except for his TD numbers—Pickens is tied for the 2nd-most targets without a receiving TD (28), per Ian Hartitz.

šŸ’° Buy Roman Wilson. He’s quietly the Steelers’ 2nd-most-used pass catcher with 100 routes run, a 20% 1st-read target share, 0.24 targets per route run, and a 28.3% slot target rate. Pittsburgh’s also throwing the ball on 2/3 of their plays, averaging 42.5 pass plays per game, per Yahoo’s Ray Garvin.

QB / TE

T-Law // Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

šŸ’° Buy Trevor Lawrence. It’s a Jags lovefest today, I guess.šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø Lawrence is currently 25th in the NFL in dropbacks (114), per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen—that’s four fewer than Baker Mayfield, who didn’t even play last week. His stats have been just ok thus far, but he’s taken on four defenses that are in the top-half of the league (CLE, DEN, NE, CIN). Look for him to start throwing the ball more often as the season progresses (and you can count on some positive rushing regression, too—Lawrence is averaging fewer than 10 yards rushing per game after averaging 21.1 per game in 2025).

šŸ“‰ Sell Lamar Jackson. Yet another ankle injury for Lamar… in his final nine games last year (after returning from another ankle injury), Jackson rushed for only 183 yards (20.3 per game). He also averaged only 186.6 passing yards per game with 10 TD passes, per Hansen. He had two decent games upon his return, but was otherwise a fantasy bust for seven weeks.

šŸ’° Buy Matthew Stafford. ā€œIn three non-season-opening games in Australia this season, Stafford has thrown for 327 yards/four TDs, 390/two and 317/zero. He's 3d in the NFL in passing yards and that's with WR Puka Nacua missing two games. After not scoring on Sunday, you might be able to buy into a slight value dip.ā€ — USA Today’s Everett Cook

šŸ“‰ Sell low on Justin Herbert. It’s so over. Not only is he the QB23 on the season, but he’s done so while facing the 2nd-easiest QB schedule through four weeks. Now, from Weeks 5-17, he’ll face the toughest QB schedule, per Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola. If you can get anything for him at this point (maybe someone in your league thinks he’ll bounce back?) then do it.

šŸš€ Trey McBride to the MOON! He’s had double-digit targets every week and is the fantasy TE1, despite facing the toughest TE schedule through four weeks. Now, from Weeks 5-17, he’ll face the 5th-easiest TE schedule, per Jared Smola. If you can figure out a way to buy him after a down game (by his standards—10.1 PPR points), go for it.

šŸ’° Buy low on Colston Loveland. Here’s his target share % by week:

The spike weeks are coming, especially once Caleb Williams returns.

šŸ’° Buy Dallas Goedert. He had a strong showing in Week 1 (23.7 fantasy points) before spraining his MCL in Week 2. He’s back at practice this week and has a chance to play Sunday, but may not be 100%. After that, Philly will face the Panthers, Cowboys, Commanders, and Giants. All four of those teams rank in the top half of most favorable matchups for fantasy TEs so far this season, per Jorden Hill.

POLL šŸ“Š

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RANKINGS āœļø

Our Week 5 positional rankings are LIVE. Here are some of the favorite plays from our Rankings Specialist, Anthony…

Jacoby Brissett (ARI) — QB14 vs. DET:

  • ā€œBrissett enters Week 5 in a great spot for fantasy production against a Detroit defense that has been vulnerable through the air. Arizona has two heavily utilized receiving weapons in Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, and a matchup with Detroit creates the potential for a high-scoring game where Brissett is pushed toward 35+ attempts. Detroit's offense can create fantasy-friendly game scripts simply by forcing opponents to continue throwing. Brissett doesn't need elite rushing production to pay off at QB14.ā€

Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) — RB18 vs. PHI:

  • ā€œTuten is one of my favorite upside RB plays because his opportunity continues to grow while his explosiveness gives him the ability to outperform his touch count. As we noted earlier, Tuten has had two TDs taken off the board because of penalties, leading me to believe that he's due for a big performance. Philadelphia also enters Week 5 dealing with significant offensive injuries, which could help Jacksonville avoid the negative game script that would normally threaten Tuten's rushing volume. At RB18, we're not asking him to handle 25 carries — 15-18 opportunities with red zone work could be enough. His big-play ability means one explosive run combined with a touchdown could quickly turn him into a Top-10 Half-PPR back this week.ā€

Tee Higgins (CIN) — WR13 @ MIA (*if healthy):

  • ā€œHiggins has arguably the highest ceiling of these four if Ja'Marr Chase sits. After Chase exited last week's game, Higgins exploded for 11 receptions and 157 yards on 16 targets, showing exactly how concentrated Joe Burrow's passing attack can become without Chase. Higgins is dealing with an adductor injury himself, so his practice participation needs to be monitored, but the setup against Miami is excellent if he's cleared for his normal workload. With Chase unavailable, Higgins could realistically push toward another double-digit target game, and his red-zone ability gives him multi-TD upside. At WR13, a healthy Higgins has a legitimate path to a top-5 WR finish.

Colston Loveland (CHI) — TE8 @ GB:

  • ā€œLoveland is an intriguing boom candidate, despite Chicago turning to Tyson Bagent at QB. The QB change lowers the overall ceiling of the Bears' passing attack, but it could actually funnel more short and intermediate targets toward Loveland. That's particularly valuable at tight TE, where consistent route participation and 6-8 targets can separate a player from most of the position. Loveland also provides legitimate yards-after-catch ability rather than relying exclusively on TDs.ā€

For Anthony’s full Week 4 rankings, click the link below to upgrade your subscription for just $4/month. No contracts. No commitments. Money-back guarantee.

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QUICK SLANTS šŸ‘€

šŸ“– Read Joe Metz of Fantasy Life’s Rest-Of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings for recent risers and fallers, like Tetairoa McMillan and Dalton Kincaid.

šŸ“– Read Nick Raducanu of SI’s Week 5 WR/TE Target Report, where he looks at the previous week’s target data and usage trends to help figure out what fantasy football managers should think of players like Carnell Tate, Romeo Doubs, Dohnte Meyers, and more.

šŸ“– Read The Everything Report: Week 5 from Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath and Graham Barfield ($), where they review all the usage data from Week 4 to offer insights on Week 5.

šŸ“ŗ Watch Top 12 NFL Play Callers + Weekly Rewind from The Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast, where the guys study the film to highlight the league’s best playcallers and do some deep dives on Tetairoa McMillan, Denzel Boston, and more.

TWEET OF THE DAY āœļø

Enjoy Bucs @ ā€˜Boys tonight.

See you Sunday morning.

- Marcus

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