šŸˆ Jacory Croskey-Merritt & Week 5 Trends

Players to buy, sell, and hold ahead of Week 5.

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Good morning.

So, in case you missed it, here’s the latest news around the NFL…

Trey Benson’s on IR, Bucky Irving’s on crutches and in a walking boot, Tyreek Hill’s leg snapped, Lamar Jackson has a bad hammy, Malik Nabers is done for the season, every 49er is hurt, the Vikings and Raiders are down starting tackles, McLaurin and Deebo could both be out, Chuba Hubbard’s hobbled, and Dillon Gabriel’s starting for the Browns.

*catches breath*

If this keeps up, I’ll be starting Hingle McCringleberry in the FLEX before I know it.

As we know, the show must go on. So let’s look at how players who are actually healthy are trending…

Today's newsletter highlights:

  • Buying Bill šŸ’°

  • Down on D.K. šŸ“‰

  • Maye to the Moon šŸš€

  • More buys, sells, holds, and other trends 🧐

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

Bill Croskey-Merritt // Daniel Kucin Jr., AP Photo

šŸ’° Buy Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Bill has been stuck in a committee, even after Austin Ekeler was lost for the season. But his potential is bubbling under the surface…

šŸ“‰ Sell high on Saquon Barkley. He’s still one of just four RBs with over 70.0% of his team’s carries and a target share north of 15.0%, but his metrics from last year vs. this year are moderately concerning:

Rushing Success Rate (on early downs): 34.3% (2025), 49.3% (2024)
Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 2.3, 5.1
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 8.6%, 20.3%
Adj. Yards Before Contact per Att.: 0.71, 1.04
Run Block Win Rate: 22nd, 9th
(per Yahoo’s Chris Allen)

Saquon hasn’t topped 100 scrimmage yards in a game yet, and half of his attempts have come with a defender meeting him at or behind the line of scrimmage. If you can get a haul that’s relatively equal to his top-5 overall preseason value, go for it.

šŸ’° Buy Quinshon Judkins. Just to give an example of how big a workload the rookie is getting, since Week 3, Christian McCaffrey (who leads the league in touches) has handled 50 out of a potential 61 opportunities doled out to the 49ers RBs over that span, an 81% usage rate. Judkins trails McCaffrey in usage by just 6% over that span, per Fantasy Life’s Geoff Ulrich. He’s a bellcow.

šŸ¤” What do we do with this Cardinals backfield? Trey Benson is now on IR, so you might as well pick up Emari Demarcado and/or Michael Carter, but chances are that’s already happened in your league. Reports suggest Michael Carter will be the early down back, while Demarcado mixes in as a change-of-pace/passing down back. To be honest, they’ll both probably be irrelevant. This looks like a low-ceiling committee.

šŸ’° Buy Bhayshul Tuten. The Jags running game is hummin’—their offensive line ranks top-3 in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and Travis Etienne is the RB10. But the underlying metrics show some serious upside for Tuten…

Stuff Rate:
Tuten - 19.0% (BEST in the NFL)
Etienne - 47.7%

Missed Tackles Forces per Attempt:
Tuten - 0.29 (3rd-best)
Etienne - 0.17

% of Yards Coming After Contact:
Tuten - 65% (9th-most)
Etienne - 46% (8th-fewest)

(per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath)

I wouldn’t go so far as to say sell Etienne—you want the lead back in this scheme. But Tuten could enter FLEX-with-benefits territory if he earns more work—and, of course, the ceiling is the roof if Etienne were to go down.

🤫 Stash Brashard Smith:

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs // patriots.com

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