🏈 Bucky Irving & Week 6 Starts/Sits

Must-start players in Week 6 of the NFL season, along with players to sit, the latest injury news, and best bets.

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Good morning.

It’s been a tough year…

But don’t worry, we’re here for you.

It’s a new week and a new opportunity, so let’s get down to business…

Today's newsletter highlights:

  • 😎 Bucky’s time to shine

  • 🤯 BTJ = JaMarr Chase?!

  • 📉 Rashid outta luck

  • 💰 Best Bets

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INJURY REPORT 🚨

Rachaad White Doubtful

Rachaad White // Pewter Report

Rachaad White’s foot injury is expected to keep him out this week, meaning Bucky Irving SZN is officially upon us. He’s a must-start this week, as he’s been absolutely electric in a small sample size:

  • 5.61 yards per carry (5th-best)

  • .250 missed tackles forced per attempt (3rd-best)

  • 2.95 yards after contact per attempt (8th-best)
    (per @FantasyPtsData)

He’ll look to capitalize on what should be a positive game script against rookie Spencer Rattler and the Saints.

Meanwhile, here are the statuses of other fantasy-relevant players dealing with injuries:

👍 Expected to play:

  • James Cook

  • Joe Mixon

  • Chase Brown

  • Anthony Richardson

  • Michael Pittman

  • Josh Downs

  • Diontae Johnson

  • Tyler Conklin

👎 Not expected to play:

  • Jakobi Meyers

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

  • Christian Watson

  • Khalil Shakir

  • Zamir White

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

Caleb Williams // SI

✅ Start ‘Em:

Caleb Williams @ JAX (in London): The Jags are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Three QBs in a row (Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, and Joe Flacco) all scored at least 27.5 points against them, per CBSSports’ Jamey Eisenberg. Hopefully Williams will continue that trend in Week 6.

Justin Fields @ LV: The Raiders deploy man coverage at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL, and against man, Fields has an 8.6% big-time throw rate compared to just a 1.8% turnover-worthy throw rate, along with an 11.1-yard average depth of target, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke. PFF ranked this as the easiest matchup among all QBs this week.

Kirk Cousins @ CAR: The Panthers are tied for the league lead in passing TDs allowed to QBs with 11 and have allowed at least two passing TDs in every game this season, per USA Today’s Jacob Camenker. If Cousins can continue that streak, he should be a top-10 QB this week.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Aaron Rodgers vs BUF: “The Jets have emerged as one of the most pass-heavy offenses (+9.2% pass rate over expectation — 3rd-highest) over the last three weeks, and this certainly seems like a spot for them to try and run the ball more. Buffalo is predominantly playing two-high coverage (59% frequency), which invites opponents to run the ball against them.” — Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Jared Goff @ DAL: Somehow, Daniel Jones is the only QB to top 250 passing yards against the Cowboys this season and they have allowed just six passing TDs in five games, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

Trevor Lawrence vs CHI: T-Law has been up-and-down this season, so if you have other options, fade him against a Bears D that has allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this year, per Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox.

Running Back

Tony Pollard // USA Today

✅ Start ‘Em:

Tony Pollard vs IND: “Pollard is the RB11 in expected fantasy points, and the Titans are home favorites coming off a bye. The Colts are dealing with multiple injuries on offense and have a run-funnel defense, as opposing backs are averaging the 2nd-most carries (28.2) this season.” — Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don

J.K. Dobbins @ DEN: Gus Edwards is on IR, leaving Dobbins alone to take on a Broncos D that is much easier to run on (111.4 yards per game, 11th in the NFL) than to pass on (159.8 yards per game, 5th in the league), per Jacob Camenker.

D’Andre Swift @ JAX (in London): The Jags have allowed 13+ fantasy points to five different RBs this season, including three who have scored more than 18 points and one over 20 points, per SI’s Michael Fabiano.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Jerome Ford @ PHI: Ford hasn’t topped 10 carries in a game since Week 1, when he had 12 attempts. That was also when he scored his only TD of the year, per NBCSports’ Kyle Dvorchak. The Browns offense is brutal and they’re 9.5-point underdogs to the Eagles this week.

Rico Dowdle vs DET: He hasn’t surpassed a 50% snap rate in a contest this season and takes on a Lions D that has allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game and 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs, per DraftKings’ Jeff Pratt.

Trey Sermon vs IND: He was a volume-based RB1 last week, but could struggle to repeat that today against a tough Titans run D. Tennessee has the 5th-lowest missed tackle rate, the 7th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 4th-lowest yards per carry allowed to gap runs (Sermon 52.6% gap), per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

Wide Receiver

Scary Terry // Washington Commanders

✅ Start ‘Em:

Terry McLaurin @ BAL: “McLaurin ranks 12th in target share (27.3%) and first in air yards share (56.6%) on an offense that’s off to a historic start in points per drive. The Ravens are by far the league’s biggest pass-funnel defense and have allowed the third most fantasy points to wide receivers (and the most passing yards).” — Dalton Del Don

Zay Flowers vs WAS: Flowers is coming off a career-high 111 receiving yards and gets to take on Washington, who ranks 22nd in yards allowed to WRs while allowing the highest passer rating when targeted, per Michael F. Florio.

Brian Thomas Jr. vs CHI: The Bears are playing the 9th-highest rate of Cover-3 zone (38%). And in Jacksonville’s first five games, BTJ easily leads the team in targets (29% share) and has posted a stellar 10/224/1 receiving (4.98 YPRR) when facing Cover-3, per Graham Barfield.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Rashid Shaheed vs TB: Derek Carr’s out with an oblique injury, leaving rookie Spencer Rattler under center. Since 2000, Day Three picks making their first start have averaged just 178 passing yards at 6.2 yards per attempt, per Kyle Dvorchak.. Rattler also ranked outside of the top 50 quarterbacks in PFF passing grade on deep throws in both of his seasons at South Carolina, making Shaheed a volatile play for the time being.

Ladd McConkey @ DEN: The Broncos are 5th in pass yards allowed in the league and are giving up 107 yards per game to WR groups, per USA Today’s Ayrton Ostly. Los Angeles will likely struggle through the air, McConkey included.

Keon Coleman @ NYJ: It’s a tough day for rookie WRs… the Jets have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season, and while Coleman has caught TD passes in two of the last three weeks, he's also seen just 10 targets and five receptions over that span, per Kristopher Knox.

Tight End

Kraft Dinner // ESPN

✅ Start ‘Em:

Tucker Kraft vs ARI: Since Week 3, Arizona has had the 9th-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59.2%), and against single-high looks, Kraft is second on the Packers with 2.69 yards per route run. He’s also now the TE4 on the season and ranks 5th in YPRR and 8th in receiving yards per game, per FantasyPros.

For those of you, like me, who drafted Mark Andrews but picked up Kraft

Dalton Schultz @ NE: New England has a bottom-10 pass defense and have allowed the 7th-most yards to opposing TEs (265). Nico Collins also recently went on IR, and in two games last season without Collins, Schultz finished with 71 yards and 58 yards, and four receptions in each. Collins left Week 5's game at halftime, and Schultz finished with nine targets in the win over Buffalo. The Patriots will likely be down two starting safeties, making this an even tastier matchup for the veteran, per USA Today’s Tom Viera.

Cade Otton vs NO: Otton is averaging 47 receiving yards per game from Weeks 3-5, and currently sits 9th in total receiving yards among TEs. Today, he takes on the Saints, who’ve allowed nearly 13 fantasy points per game to the position, per Fantasy Football Calculator’s William Spencer.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

David Njoku @ PHI: “The Eagles have allowed the 2nd-fewest receptions, 4th-fewest yards, and zero TDs to the position. Expect Deshaun Watson to continue to lean on Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy against the Eagles struggling corners.” — Tom Viera

Mark Andrews vs WAS: He’s been improving lately, but the Commanders have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs, per Jamey Eisenberg. If you have other options, fade Andrews.

Hunter Henry vs HOU: “Since Week 3, Henry has faded into the background of this offense with a 9.8% target share, 17.7 receiving yards per game, 0.71 YPRR, and a 9% first-read share. He’ll continue to prepare for Halloween with his ghost costume this week against a pass defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards and the 4rth-fewest fantasy points per game to TEs.” — Derek Brown

POLL 📊

Which marquee matchup will you be most locked into today?

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BEST BETS 💰

T.J. Watt // S.I.

2024 record: 10-5 (3-0 last week).

🥇 PITTSBURGH -3 @ Las Vegas (-115)

  • “The Steelers’ defense is 4th in the league in rush EPA and they will take away the run game completely. They will be able to force the Raiders into obvious passing downs and that is when the Steelers’ pass rush can get after Aidan O’Connell and force mistakes. Mike Tomlin should rally the troops and get a huge win in this spot.” — DraftKings’ Blake Krass

🥈 DeVonta Smith UNDER 5.5 receptions

  • “DeVonta Smith has exceeded 5.5 receptions in just 7 of his last 17 games played with A.J. Brown, dating back to the start of 2023 (29%). This 5.5 line is too high for the Eagles No. 2 wide receiver against the Browns, considering they have allowed the fifth-fewest completions to opposing offenses this season (second-lowest completion rate).” — FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson

🥉 Buffalo @ NY Jets UNDER 40.5 (-105)

  • “The Bills rank sixth in plays of 20-plus yards allowed, and both offenses are in the bottom half of the league in plays of 10-plus yards. A lack of explosiveness has been a defining issue for both offenses at this point in the season, and these two defenses are among the most well coached in the league.” — The Ringer’s Anthony Dabbundo

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points’ Week 6 Advanced Matchups, where he uses the Fantasy Points Data Suite to dig into coverage shells, blitz rates, individual matchups, and more. This content is usually behind a paywall, but the guys at Fantasy Points are offering a free preview of the next-level analysis they offer, so be sure to check it out.

One interesting note… Heath expects Marvin Harrison Jr. to show up today against Green Bay’s single-high-heavy defense:

📖 Read Mike Fanelli of FantasyPros’ 6 Last-Minute Waiver Wire Pickups & Injury Replacements in case your guys that are gametime decisions are ruled out right before kickoff.

📖 Read the Week 6 Weather Conditions from Zach Langlois of the Fantasy Footballers. One matchup to watch is Arizona @ Green Bay:

It’s looking pretty nasty in Green Bay on Sunday. Over 80% chance of rain, winds in the low-teens gusting up to the low-20s, and temps in the upper-50s. Whenever we see games like this, there is usually more of a dependency on the run game and short passes but they generally remain low-scoring. Double-check before kickoff and be ready to flex.

🎙️Listen to Senior Bowl Executive Director Jim Nagy on Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks’ Move The Sticks Podcast. Nagy, Jeremiah and Brooks explain the scouting process of the Senior Bowl, break down the top QB prospects in next year’s draft, look at which positions will be the deepest, and some underrated prospects as well.

It’s a great listen for those of you (like me and other Browns fans) who are already looking forward to the offseason.

📺 Watch NFL Week 5 Mic’d Up for some great clips of last week’s action:

TWEET OF THE DAY

Good luck this week.

And to all our Canadian readers: have a Happy Thanksgiving!🦃

- Marcus

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