Good morning.

Feeling down? Maybe you drafted A.J. Brown? Well here’s something to cheer you up: there will be a college or NFL football game on TV every day from now until the day before Thanksgiving (Nov 26). Gonna buy my wife some flowers on the way home from work to apologize in advance…

Speaking of A.J. Brown, today’s the day where we dive into the advanced metrics to figure out which under-performing studs we’re buying, which overachievers we’re selling, and other trends around the NFL. Let’s get after it…

SPONSOR

Buying Cannabis Online Is Now Legal, And Incredibly Convenient

Thanks to changing laws buying THC online is now 100% federally legal.

And when it comes to quality, reliability and ultimate convenience, Mood is leading the way…

Because, instead of memorizing confusing strain names – you simply choose how you want to feel: Creative, Social, Focused, Relaxed, Happy, Aroused, and more.

20% OFF your first order!

MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

🚀 The Bill Breakout is upon us. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is performing at an elite level so far this season:

• PFF Rush Grade: 90.1 (1 of 43 RBs with at least 30 attempts)

• Yards per attempt: 6.6 (1st)

• Yards after contact: 4.4 (2nd)

• Yards before contact: 2.2 (2nd)

• Missed tackles forced: 23% (11th)

• 10+ yard attempts: 21% (2nd)

• Targets per route: 17% (23rd)

• Yards per route: 1.29 (13th)

  (per Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland)

And he finally got the workload we’ve all been hoping for. Last week, the Commanders RB registered season-highs in fantasy points (28), attempts (61%), routes (38%), and targets (9%). He earned a Utilization Score of 71 in McFarland’s Utilization Report, and others with that score have historically averaged 13.8 fantasy PPG, with 75% of them achieving a top-24 fantasy season.

💰 Buy low on Chase Brown. If someone wants preseason value in return, don’t do it. Joe Flacco is barely an upgrade over Jake Browning. But if you can buy Brown at an RB2 price point, take your shot. While the offense as a whole will likely still struggle, expect an uptick in the RB’s receiving work:

📉 Sell Alvin Kamara. He’s averaging just 4.53 YPC this year and has scored only one TD—good for RB24 overall in full-PPR scoring, per The Fantasy Footballers’ Kemper Trull. Meanwhile, Kendre Miller is finally getting some run (10 carries to Kamara’s eight last week), and with a new coaching staff, there’s no real loyalty to justify giving Kamara all the work when he’s inefficient.

💰 Hold/Buy low on Woody Marks. He disappointed with just 2.4 fantasy points last week, but he still out-snapped Nick Chubb 27 to 24, per SI’s Ryan Shea. It’s going to remain a split for a while, but based on their ages, Chubb is likely to trend down over time, while Marks should trend up. Don’t expect league-winning potential here, but he could be a solid FLEX option down the stretch.

📉 Sell J.K. Dobbins. He's currently the RB11 in half-PPR formats due in large part to him scoring a rushing TD in four of his first five starts. However, Dobbins has lacked much of a ceiling with fewer than 16 fantasy points in all five games this year, and he doesn't bring much production as a receiver, totalling just six catches for 23 yards, per FanDuel’s Skyler Carlin.

💰 Buy TreVeyon Henderson. I know we’ve been saying this almost every week, but Antonio Gibson’s done for the season, so this HAS to be Henderson’s time to shine… right?! Only three RBs have gained positive yards on +90% of runs in 2025:

97% - TreVeyon Henderson
92% - Javonte Williams
90% - Jonathan Taylor
(per CBS Sports’ Jacob Gibbs)

And if Rhamondre Stevenson keeps fumbling every week, Mike Vrabel’s going to have no choice but to finally play his explosive rookie.

📉 Sell Jordan Mason. He’s averaging 4.7 YPC on the season and has scored three times since taking over as the lead back. However, he's been a non-factor in the passing game and has fumbled on the opening drive two games in a row, per Roto Baller’s Jorden Hill. The Vikings are heading into their Week 6 bye before returning to some tough matchups against the Eagles, Chargers, and Lions. Plus, Aaron Jones is eligible to return as of Week 8.

💰 Buy high on Quinshon Judkins. In his last three games, he’s operated as the Browns’ lead back and produced 95 yards, 115 yards and 128 yards with two TDs against difficult opponents (Packers, Lions and Vikings). If he’s already been impressive in tough matchups and negative game scripts, then the sky’s the limit going forward—he has the easiest remaining RB schedule in fantasy football, per FantasyPros.

Wide Receiver